January 20, 2005
ALLIES WHO MATTER:
Most Indians say 'thumbs up' to second Bush term: India was 1 of only 3 nations where a majority said the world was safer because of his reelection, according to a new poll (Scott Baldauf, 1/21/05 The Christian Science Monitor )
Here, Bush's fresh four years as president of the United States is given a firm thumbs up. And no, that doesn't mean something rude in Indian culture.India's reasons for bucking the global distrust-America trend - a phenomenon that largely resulted from America's 2003 decision to launch a preemptive war in Iraq without UN approval, according to recent surveys - say much about how India sees itself in the post-cold war and post-Sept. 11, 2001, world. Based on a combination of business links, immigration trends, shared views on terrorism, and national self-interest, India's increasingly warm approach toward Washington is one of the reasons the US now regards India as a rising global and regional power, and a partner above most other nations in Asia.
"Bush has been good for India," says C. Rajamohan, a political scientist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. "More has happened between India and the US in the last four years than in the last 40." [...]
India has come a long way from the days of the cold war, when many Indians saw the US as a capitalistic and colonialist power bent on dominating smaller nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Cuba. Today, as India aspires to be a global power itself - based on its huge consumer economy, advanced technological prowess, and nuclear weapons - many Indians now see the US as a partner with common goals. "George Bush has done a lot to rehabilitate the language of pure national self-interest [here]," says Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president of the Center for Policy Research, an independent think tank in New Delhi. "He says, 'Let's not beat around with a lot of talk on humanitarian norms or multilateralism. Rather it's national interest that is most important.' And that allows India to do the same. It's a realpolitik scenario."
While President Clinton did much to "reduce the poison" of past American policy, in the words of Mr. Rajamohan, the Clinton administration continued to browbeat Delhi about its nuclear-weapons programs and its strong-arm military strategy in its ongoing fight with separatist movements in Kashmir and in the northeastern states. President Bush, by contrast, hasn't backed some treaties that restrict nuclear proliferation - including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty - and with his administration, the browbeating stopped.
But it was terrorism that ultimately brought Delhi and Washington together, says Rajamohan. "After the attacks of Dec. 13 [on India's parliament building] the US for the first time defined groups based in Pakistan as terrorists. They began to hold Pakistan accountable for their actions."
By every measure you can think of, India is our most important strategic partner this century. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 20, 2005 5:30 PM
I remember reading something once regarding how Indians have cast a wary eye towards the United Nations ever since they failed to do anything during the whole Indian-Pakistani flare-up after WWII. They do NOT trust the United Nations or the usual yammering about "multilateralism" or "the world community."
And there's surely a mutual understanding between us about the necessity of hunting down Islamist terrorist swine.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at January 20, 2005 6:00 PMIf you endorse the idea of the Anglosphere, India, now that it has moved beyond the old days of non-alignment, fits the concept quite well. Given the British Empire's legacy, it's not surprising.
Posted by: Ed Bush at January 20, 2005 6:26 PMConsidering India has the world's second largest Muslim population I would be very curious to see what the breakdown would be along religious lines of the 62% who answered positively.
Posted by: MB at January 20, 2005 7:09 PMThat's right. Moreover, by the end of this century, China could very well have turned out to be the proverbial hare, while India was the tortoise. Whatever the flaws of its political system, India has been a practicing democracy for decades. This is an achievement that China hasn't even begun to try to emulate, and all of China's economic gains are likely to be reversed when its corrupt dictatorship finally collapses. In contrast, India has an excellent chance to continue to enjoy steady economic growth under the governance of leaders who are elected and who aren't desperately trying to avoid being killed by an increasingly angry population out to take retribution for oppression and misrule. In the end, even though it will have done so with far less fanfare and with much less acclaim from Western intellectuals, India could very well win the economic race with China for creating enduring prosperity. If this scenario is even close to what will happen in the coming decades, the future will belong not to an authoritarian China with its Potemkin economy, but to an alliance between America and an increasingly prosperous and free India.
Posted by: X at January 20, 2005 9:19 PMI am not sure that the leadership, particullarly Congres, is there yet. They still have a lot of anti-British, Pro-Soviet baggage.
In the long run yes.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at January 20, 2005 10:43 PMRobert:
That's what we're talking about and the point of the story about the tortoise and the hare: the long run.
Posted by: X at January 20, 2005 11:12 PMIndia is roughly 10% Muslim, or about 130 million people.
Congress does have plenty of baggage. A large section of the party is still trapped in the Fabian mode of Nehru and Indira Gandhi. However, the Indian diaspora in the States has played a role in pushing the Indian haute bourgeoisie(i..e much of the party apparat) to being more friendly towards America, seeing Britain for the cheesy museum piece with bad food that it is.
Indian democracy faces severe problems before we should be sanguine about its prospects though. Regional and linguistic differences, manifested by regional, linguistic and personalist parties, still matter. The caste structure remains in place and Dalits feel that they have gained little to no benefit from the recent expansion of the economy. The BJP was seen as heavily anti-Dalit. So long as large segments of the population see government's role as redistributionist rather than as enabling people to build their own futures and so long as a powerful group of politicos remains convinced a la francaise that they are better judges than the free market of who should get what, there will be trouble. Indian infrastructure, its legal system and its regulatory network are a total nightmare.
We should be friendly with India because the advancing India and our country have pretty much identical interests and we are both under siege from the Muslims. India is also a potential victim of PRC bullying which should make it a natural future partner along with Taiwan and Japan.
Posted by: Bart at January 21, 2005 1:58 PMIndia is roughly 10% Muslim, or about 130 million people, IOW about 130 million more Muslims than any civilized society should be compelled to accept.
Congress does have plenty of baggage. A large section of the party is still trapped in the Fabian mode of Nehru and Indira Gandhi. However, the Indian diaspora in the States has played a role in pushing the Indian haute bourgeoisie(i..e much of the party apparat) to being more friendly towards America, seeing Britain for the cheesy museum piece with bad food that it is.
Indian democracy faces severe problems before we should be sanguine about its prospects though. Regional and linguistic differences, manifested by regional, linguistic and personalist parties, still matter. The caste structure remains in place and Dalits feel that they have gained little to no benefit from the recent expansion of the economy. The BJP was seen as heavily anti-Dalit. So long as large segments of the population see government's role as redistributionist rather than as enabling people to build their own futures and so long as a powerful group of politicos remains convinced a la francaise that they are better judges than the free market of who should get what, there will be trouble. Indian infrastructure, its legal system and its regulatory network are a total nightmare.
We should be friendly with India because the advancing India and our country have pretty much identical interests and we are both under siege from the Muslims. India is also a potential victim of PRC bullying which should make it a natural future partner along with Taiwan and Japan.
Posted by: Bart at January 21, 2005 1:59 PM