November 2, 2004

WI EXIT POLL:

More early exit poll results (JS Online: Weblog, 11/02/04)

The second batch of statewide numbers are in, and the late afternoon results more or less reflect the mid-day results:

The numbers show 53% of those who have voted are female, 47% male, a balance that is leveling out from earlier in the day (see items below). Those who said they are voting for the first time account for 9%, higher than the 6% recorded mid-morning. The same four issues are at the top of the scales: Moral values (21%), terrorism (20%), Iraq (18%), economy/jobs (18%).

Those who say they are Republican account for 40% of the voters, Democrats 35% and independents 25%.


That GOP 5 point advantage despite a 6 point gender split has to be good for Republicans.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2004 6:53 PM
Comments

"That GOP 5 point advantage despite a 6 point gender split has to be good for Republicans."

You know, I'm trying to do all the rationalizing I can, too, but I have a yucky feeling in my stomach right now. Do we really think all these exit polls are just magically wrong?

Believe me, I would love for this post to make me look like a naive, pessimistic idiot about four hours from now. But for now, I'm having a tough time getting my juices revved back up.

Sigh...

Posted by: Semolina Pilchard at November 2, 2004 7:08 PM

I know the feeling Semolina. I usually have the tv on in the next room when I'm looking thru the blogs and I had to turn it off during the evening news. Wake me when it's over.

Posted by: AllenS at November 2, 2004 7:18 PM

Didn't the polls show Allard - CO down and he won in the end?

Posted by: Sandy P at November 2, 2004 7:38 PM

Sandy:

Down significantly and he won easily.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 7:46 PM

Man, this is going to be a tough night. Either way, a tough night.

Posted by: H.D. Miller at November 2, 2004 7:46 PM

There is a pattern of GOP voters turning out heavily after 5 pm, the many jobless Dems dominate early exit polls ... nothing to say the early exit polls weren't Dem disinformation as well ... so far everything looks good for the GOP on internals (Catholics +10 over 2000, Hispanics +5, gains with blacks and Jews) except that young voters are breaking more for Kerry. Fraud is still the wild card.

Posted by: pj at November 2, 2004 7:59 PM

"There is a pattern of GOP voters turning out heavily after 5 pm, the many jobless Dems dominate early exit polls"

I always took this as old perennial joke (I even heard a Democratic colleague saying it today with a chuckle). Is there really some empirical evidence that Democratic turnout is higher during the day?

But fraud -- yes. No joke there. The system absolutely needs to be fixed. (Yeah, "fixed"... another old joke.)

Posted by: Semolina Pilchard at November 2, 2004 8:13 PM

Semolina - Yes, exit polls track Dem before 5 pm and Rep after 5 pm.

Posted by: pj at November 2, 2004 11:11 PM
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