November 20, 2004


An All-New York Series (Washington Whispers, 11/29/04, US News)

The results are in, and the crystal ball is clear: Voters are getting into a New York state of mind. Despite more than a dozen politicians already lining up to replace President Bush in four years, pollster Tony Fabrizio tells us that voters have only two candidates in mind: ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. What about Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. John Edwards ? Fuhgeddaboudem, says Fabrizio's poll of 1,200 registered voters, one of the first on the 2008 race. Rudy beats McCain 42 percent to 24 percent. Hillary beats Edwards by a similar 18-point margin, 46 percent to 28 percent. "One thing is for sure," says Fabrizio. "After a Hillary-Rudy matchup, George Steinbrenner and the Yankees won't be the most hated New Yorkers anymore."

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 20, 2004 8:25 PM

It's always fun to speculate, but it's way too soon to know. While Giuliani may well run, Hillary will very likely not.

Posted by: at November 20, 2004 8:32 PM

Until they stop voting reflexively for the Dem, who cares which candidate NewYawk wants for President? What's the point of the GOP running a candidate who might win that state if that candidate then has to fight to retain the midwest, Florida and so-called border states?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 20, 2004 9:08 PM


For some reason, I interpreted this as being a New York state only poll.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 20, 2004 9:28 PM

If Rudy doesn't run against Hillary in 2006 -- assuming the missus herself runs in 2006 -- the national GOP won't be inclined to back him in 2008. If he runs and wins, or if she doesn't run, then his chances nationally two years down the line will improve, even though his social issue positions will still cause problems.

Posted by: John at November 21, 2004 1:27 AM

In order to get the support of the conservatives who dominate the GOP, however, Giuliani has to move right on at least some social issues, particularly abortion.

I don't believe a pro-choice GOP nominee will get very far.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at November 21, 2004 1:58 AM

If Bush can get some pro-life judges confirmed, then Giuliani might have a chance at the 2008 nomination. He has the executive experience and style that a president ought to have. But...

If the Dems block a number of high-profile judicial picks, then the GOP rank-and-file will demand another strongly pro-life presidential candidate. And Giuliani won't be able to finesse his position.

Posted by: J Baustian at November 21, 2004 2:43 AM

I say run Jeb Bush (with Condi vp) against Hillary. No one could complain about nepotism in that match-up, and Jeb wins in a walk.

Rudy should be governor or senator. He is the perfect representative for NY, and he could keep on winning until he is 99.

Posted by: Randall Voth at November 21, 2004 9:28 AM

But Hillary is a carpet-bagger, not a real New Yorker.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at November 21, 2004 1:19 PM

Rudy is an executive. He would not be a good fit for a legislative office. He would make a better president than a senator.

Posted by: J Baustian at November 24, 2004 4:10 AM