November 9, 2004


GOP Turns Out A Win (Charlie Cook, Nov. 9, 2004, National Journal)

If exit polls do not predict winners, they do provide some useful data. First, historically 51 percent of voters are female and 49 percent are
male, simply because there are more adult women and because women tend
to live longer than men do. But in 2004, 51 percent of the vote was
male, 49 percent was female. President Bush carried men by 11 points, 55
percent to 44 percent, but Kerry led among women by just three points,
51 percent to 48 percent. Given Al Gore's 11-point, 54 percent to 43
percent advantage among women four years ago, women voted
disproportionately less for Democrats this year, very possibly making
the difference in this election.

President Bush made modest but measurable inroads among the 12 percent
of the electorate who are black, going from 8 percent to 11 percent of
the vote. But it was among Hispanic voters, who account for 6 percent of
the electorate, that President Bush made real inroads, going from 31
percent in 2000 to 43 percent of the vote this time. Keeping in mind
that Rove's goal for 2004 was to get 40 percent of the Hispanic vote,
this very likely made the difference in swinging New Mexico from the
blue to the red column this year.

While turnout among young people did in fact go up, the proportion was
the same as other age groups. Seventeen percent of the 2004 electorate
was under 30 years of age, the same as in 2000, though the Democratic
margin among this youngest group of voters went from a two-point
advantage for Gore in 2000 to a nine-point, 54 percent to 45 percent
Kerry advantage. Kerry lost 30-44 year-olds by seven points, 45-59
year-olds by three points and those 60 years of age and older by eight

The marital gap is alive and well, as Kerry carried unmarrieds by 18
points but lost married folks by 15 points. Thirty-seven percent of the
vote is unmarried, 63 percent are married.

Democrats and Republicans each made up 37 percent of the total
electorate and each party held their own voters remarkably well. Kerry
received 89 percent of the Democratic vote, the highest percentage of
any Democrat since at least 1976, and Bush got a whopping 93 percent of
the Republican vote, the highest since 1976 as well. Independents, who
made up 26 percent of the electorate, went for Kerry by a point, 49
percent to 48 percent.

While 85 percent of liberals voted for Kerry, 84 percent of
conservatives voted for Bush, and moderates went for Kerry by nine
points, conservatives outnumbered liberals, 34 percent to 21 percent,
making the difference.

The marriage gap may be the most interesting number in all these results, reflecting, as it so clearly does, the degree too which liberalism requires keeping people dependent on the State.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 9, 2004 10:17 AM

Idiot 20-somethings voting for the guy who would have to institute the draft.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 9, 2004 10:50 AM

One thing that Republicans tend to understand that Democrats tend not to understand is that not voting is also a vote.

Posted by: David Cohen at November 9, 2004 11:44 AM

"The marriage gap may be the most interesting number in all these results, reflecting, as it so clearly does, the degree too which liberalism requires keeping people dependent on the State."

If I ever have any problem with the non-sequitor concept, all I will have to do to set things straight is remember that quote.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 9, 2004 12:05 PM

It's because marriage stands in the way of Total Sexual Freedom (TM). Just as to an alky the Constitutional Right to My Next Drink must be preserved at all costs, so the Constitutional Right to Dip My Wick Anytime I Wanna! I Wanna! I Wanna! must be protected no matter who gets hurt.

Posted by: Ken at November 9, 2004 4:37 PM

Ken has nailed it, but for the singles, men and woman, it isn't so much the right to dip wicks, but the right to erase the consequences.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at November 10, 2004 12:29 AM


Then what is it for the marrieds?


I was single for a long time. There's a heck of a lot more to it than that.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 10, 2004 6:51 AM