November 2, 2004

"IT IS WHAT IT IS":

Bush:

KY
GA
IN
WV
TN
OK
AL
SC
NC
VA
SD
NE
TX
KS
WY
ND
LA
MS
UT
MO
AR
ID
AZ
MT
FL
CO
OH
AK

Kerry:

VT
NJ
MA
MD
ME
IL
DC
CT
DE
RI
NY
PA
WA
CA
OR
MI
HI
MN

Senate:

GA goes R

IL goes D

SC goes R

NC goes R

LA goes R

CO goes D

FL looks to have gone R

SD goes R (Chris Dodd has been calling around trying to secure votes for Minority Leader)

AK remains to be seen, but it sounds like it stays R


MORE:
-Bush and Kerry Trade Early Victories (RON FOURNIER, 11/02/04, AP)

President Bush and challenger John Kerry traded early victories Tuesday in a tense and testy presidential election that gave voters a choice between an embattled wartime incumbent and a Democrat who vigorously questioned the invasion of Iraq and Bush's domestic policies.

As the first polls closed, the president won Georgia, Indiana and Kentucky - all GOP bastions - and Kerry won the Democratic stronghold of Vermont.


-Republican Wins Zell Miller's Senate Seat (DAVID ESPO, 11/02/04, AP)
Rep. Johnny Isakson, a five-year veteran of the House, easily defeated Rep. Denise Majette in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Zell Miller did not seek re-election.

Among incumbents, Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont coasted to a sixth term and Evan Bayh of Indiana a second. Both are Democrats.

Another incumbent, Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, trailed challenger Dan Mongiardo in early returns. Interviews with voters leaving their polling places pointed to a highly competitive race.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2004 11:59 PM
Comments

Kerry is leading in New Hampshire with 61%, but as of now, Fox News is saying it is too close to call.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 8:02 PM

That's because only 3% of precincts have reported.

Posted by: jsmith at November 2, 2004 8:18 PM

And thanks to Majette's quixotic attempt, we get Cynthia McKinney back in the House. Yuck.

Posted by: PapayaSF at November 2, 2004 8:55 PM

PapayaSF:

I hope you voted NO on Proposition 66.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 9:02 PM

Absolutely.

Posted by: PapayaSF at November 2, 2004 9:23 PM

PapayaSF:

Good.

Fox News is reporting that Kerry is definitely leading in Pennsylvania. The race is neck and neck in Missouri, which I find surprising since 70% of the state voted to defend traditional marriage.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 9:27 PM

Vince,

My guess on what you're seeing here in Missouri are returns reflecting the heavily democratic urban areas of St. Louis and Kansas City. As of 9:00 CST it's Bush 54, Kerry 46 with 887 of 3943 precincts reporting.

Posted by: MB at November 2, 2004 10:04 PM

PapaSF:

Majette couldn't have won my vote in any circumstances, that slattern wench, leaving my district to McKinney's tender mercies. What absurd ambition, to think she could have won the Senate, with not even two full years in the House & no real Georgia profile to speak of.

Posted by: Twn at November 2, 2004 10:20 PM

So far it's looking pretty good for the President.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 10:25 PM

What's going on with NH? I've been hearing it may yet go to Bush.

Posted by: djs at November 2, 2004 10:48 PM

Djs:

New Hampshire was leaning towards Kerry, but now it seems to be leaning towards the President.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 10:52 PM

Huh. What do you know? I just checked Yahoo, and they have New Hampshire leaning towards Kerry again.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 10:55 PM

Supposedly the late precincts should tilt GOP, but we'll see.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 10:59 PM

Orrin:

I hate to say I told you so, but...I told you so. Kerry has won California and picked up 55 electoral votes.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 11:14 PM

Vince:

Yes, if Bush gets 52% he loses CA and a bunch of others. Get to 54%-56% and he wins 50 states.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 11:22 PM

They've called California after 1% of the precincts have reported? What?!

Posted by: at November 2, 2004 11:25 PM

Bush had one free "small state" to lose due to reapportionment of electoral votes, and the way things are breaking right now, it doesn't appear as if N.H. will make a difference in either direction, in combination with the Midwest states still in play.

Ohio still has me worried, though it would be funny if Kerry ended up taking that but still losing due to Wisconsin and Iowa. As for the exit polls, with so many states conducting early voting now, it's likely that people with jobs are not going to take off work election day -- they're either going to vote early or vote after 4 p.m., which could explain the problems with the early exit poll results. To fix that, the media will probably have to figure out a way to better exit poll early voting sites in the two weeks leading up to the election and figure out a adjustment forumla for party prefrences of voters casting ballots during normal working hours and those casting in the final hours on Election Day.

Also -- and appropos of nothing at all on this thread -- it snowed this morning in George W. Bush's hometown of Midland. Make whatever symbolism you want, or insert your own "It will be a cold day in West Texas when ... " phrase here to go along with that rare occurance.

Posted by: John at November 2, 2004 11:32 PM

How can they call ithe Upper Left Washington for Kerry when, with 6% of the vote in, Bush leads with 50% to Kerry's 49%? (Yeah, I know.) Rossi has 51% and I haven't seen them call it for him.


Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 2, 2004 11:47 PM

John:

If the President loses New Hampshire, it would be significant. It would mean that New England and the Mid-Atlantic states are solid liberal Democratic states, which would vote for someone who approves partial-birth abortion. Furthermore, it lessens the liklihood of a libertarian take-over of that state since the voters had no problem electing a tax and spend liberal.

Posted by: Vince at November 2, 2004 11:49 PM

It's over--W wins.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2004 11:50 PM

I've found the best way to get the returns is to listen to the usual local radio station, and as they mention things, look up the results on my computer. This way I avoid the bloviations of the network talking heads and get to see and digest the numbers instead of having them flash by so they can give more face time.

But no one seems to have noticed that it looks like Vitter is going to avoid the runoff in Louisiana, he's at 51% with 96% reporting. And Jindal has 78% with 98% reporting.

(And Bush still leads here with 11% in)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 2, 2004 11:58 PM

Raoul:

Do you live in the Bay Area? If so, will you be listening to the late night talk show hosts on the three letter station? Since I think the President will win, I will definitely like to hear their defeat.

Posted by: Vince at November 3, 2004 12:09 AM

Vince --

Unless the Republicans nominate Dick Cheney, Tom DeLay, Pat Buchanan or Ann Coulter im 2008, it's hard to see how the Democrats gin up this kind of passionate hatred for their opponent for a third election in a row, no matter what the outcome is tonight. A lot of those voting for Kerry this time are still the ones who have faith in the media telling them Bush (or Rove) is the devil incarnate; they're willing to go against some of their own beliefs because if so many people are saying Bush Lied, Bush is in the tank for Big Oil, Bush hates the environment, Bush ate my kitten, etc., it must be true. Plug a Bill Frist, a John McCain or a Rudy Giuliani in there, and those same attacks would be a lot tougher for various reasons.

Posted by: John at November 3, 2004 12:16 AM

Orrin:

Fox News is reporting that Kerry won New Hampshire.

Posted by: Vince at November 3, 2004 12:38 AM

Fox News is reporting that the President has won Ohio.

Posted by: Vince at November 3, 2004 12:41 AM

NBC just called Ohio for Bush.

I've been quiet tonight because I woke up very pessimistic this morning. Thank G-d that, like my president, I'm a lousy prognosticator.

Posted by: David Cohen at November 3, 2004 1:00 AM

Alaska is showing 2-1 for Bush. Add AK to the "W" column and we're in. Looks like a clean win in the popular vote, too.

We Ohioans are proud to have served.

UPDATE: they called Alaska for us as I was typing.

(Too bad about the 50-0 scenario, O.J., but I'll take the win any way it comes.)

Posted by: Mike Morley at November 3, 2004 1:01 AM

Vince:

The scandal plagued governor proved a real drag and ran a bad race.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2004 1:05 AM

Vince: listening to a station with three letters, but in the Upper Left Washington. Six more years of Patty the Dummy instead Boxer the Dummy, a difference that makes no difference.

But lower races are trending GOP (or more so than usual). Gov won't be decided until the absentees are counted in about two weeks (see 2000 and "Sierra" Slade Gorton's loss.)

And Bush is now up in Iowa by 3000 votes with 89%!!!

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 3, 2004 1:19 AM

Yahoo is projecting Kerry the winner of Minnesota.

Posted by: Vince at November 3, 2004 1:29 AM
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