November 11, 2004
IS IT SIGNIFICANT EVEN NOW?:
Al Qaeda "to disintegrate" in 2 years (Michael Holden, 10 November, 2004, Reuters)
Al Qaeda will begin to disintegrate within two years as its various factions start to squabble and militants return to their local roots, a senior parliamentary adviser has predicted.Professor Michael Clarke, a specialist adviser to lawmakers on the House of Commons defence committee, said the consequence would be that the security services would be able to win the "war on terror" as the group's structure fell apart.
"I think (cracks) are going to start to appear in the next 12 months to two years," he told Reuters at a security conference in London on Wednesday.
"It's going to start to fragment and split up," he said.
We just re-elected their arch enemy and all they could do was send a video greeting. It's over, we won. All that remains is to liberalize the Middle East. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 11, 2004 3:01 PM
One of the most common mistakes that critics of the war and the specific situation in Iraq is overestimating the morale of the enemy. Many of the analyses I've read seem to assume that nothing can negatively impact the jihadi's morale. But they are human beings like everyone else. Victories embolden them and defeats depress them.
Atrocities could embolden them even in defeat as people will fight if they think they will die anyway, but that is unlikely happen.
The crucial moment comes when one side's morale collapses and they rout. I think the jihadis, at least in Iraq, are coming soon. Once that happens, most people will internalize the new situation and move on, even if reluctantly.
What a long way we've come when half the Arab world celebrated the murder of 3000 Americans by dancing in the streets.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at November 11, 2004 5:26 PMWatch for the aforementioned rout to begin soon in Iraq. We're close to finishing up the job of taking away their most important base/sanctuary, we've killed hundreds of their hardest hard boys, hundreds if not thousands more are on the lam trying to find new havens, al-Zarqawi and the rest of the honchos have also gone to ground, we've captured their "hostage slaughterhouses" (as the Iraqi general in charge of their part of the operation put it), we've busted the mosques-cum-arrmories, etc., etc. And as soon as we get done in Fallujah we're going to go on to Ramadi and the rest of those places.
Posted by: Joe at November 11, 2004 6:45 PMThe Japanese ran out of kamikazes and the Islamists will run out of suicide bombers soon too.
Posted by: Bart at November 12, 2004 7:00 AM