November 12, 2004

INSULT TO INJURY:

Vote analysis forecasts a close win for Rossi (KENNETH P. VOGEL, 11/12/04, The Tacoma News Tribune)

The yet-to-be-decided governor’s race, locked in a protracted vote count, has forced supporters of Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi into inaction as they calculate scenarios as to how the estimated 82,000 remaining ballots will break.

The News Tribune worked the numbers on its own to produce such a forecast. It found that if counties have accurately reported the number of uncounted ballots and if those ballots follow established patterns – two big ifs – Rossi will win, becoming the state’s first Republican governor since 1980.

The News Tribune’s model has him winning by 4,389 votes, up from the 3,594-vote lead he held Thursday evening over Democrat Gregoire.

The model, which applies the percentages already received by the candidates to the outstanding votes in each county, gives Rossi 1,369,103 votes to Gregoire’s 1,364,714.


After getting waxed in 2002 Democrats had the consolation of Mary Landrieu pulling out the LA runoff. This time the last race goes against them too and in a state they have to consider deep in their base. Now they have to be very worried about Senator Maria Cantwell, who barely eked out a recount victory in 2000. Given that Senator Kerry only got 53% in WA this is now a prime target for the GOP.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 12, 2004 10:46 AM
Comments

For the better part of the last decade, the GOP has been taking a beating all across NY State. According to Peter King, a very savvy Congressman from Long Island, the reason is that there is no coherent message from the State GOP.

Is there one in Washington?

Posted by: Bart at November 12, 2004 10:56 AM

That's the same NY with a Republican governor and Republican mayor of its largest city? Where the former mayor has his choice of the Governor's seat or the Senate seat in '06?

Posted by: oj at November 12, 2004 11:02 AM

oj --

oj --

Sorry, but our friends in LA still have that "honor", as there are two House races to be decided in run-offs. In both cases, the GOP candidate came on top on Nov. 2. In both cases, a bit of GOP collegiality would assure in one race, afford in the other, GOP victories in December. The "stupidest case scenario" would be for Tauzin Junior to lose his Father's seat, but he may if his Nov. 2 opponents don't coalesce around him. (The other seat I think was held by a Dem, and there they are the ones fighting. It could be a GOP pick-up.)

Posted by: Moe from NC at November 12, 2004 11:15 AM

Bloomberg is not a pubbie, RINO at best.

He only ran on the R ticket cos the D ticket already had 6 candidates.

Posted by: Sandy P. at November 12, 2004 11:21 AM

OJ,

In NY the GOP lost a House seat, almost lost two others and lost three State Senate seats. They've lost control in Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester where they ran things since Washington Irving was around. They are running very scared right now.

Posted by: Bart at November 12, 2004 11:25 AM

Sandy:

And won.

Bart:

They'll get them all back at the midterm.

Posted by: oj at November 12, 2004 11:28 AM

Moe:

Didn't Tauzin's GOP opponent withdraw and endorse? At any rate, it doesn't affect the House split, while a Governorship , especially in the NorthWest, is big doin's.

Posted by: oj at November 12, 2004 11:29 AM

Moe,

The partisan breakdown in the non-Tauzin Louisiana seat was like 53-47 R, and the leading Dem was a liberal woman, and the seat is Cajun country so I think it's a clear pickup.

Posted by: Bart at November 12, 2004 11:44 AM

A sure sign that Rossi is going to win the vote here in the Upper Left Washington is that just moments ago this morning I heard a report that the Dems are going to file suit over counting of provisional ballots in King County.
Here's a news report..

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 12, 2004 12:18 PM

Bart--

Rossi is the first time the Republicans have had anything resembling a united message that I can remember. The WA Republicans--Rossi notwithstanding--are the very definition of the Stupid Party. Once this election thing sorts itself out, I'm going to do an analysis of the miserable failure that the WAGOP has been recently.

Rossi's impending victory, though, may give the GOP a chance to regroup and reinvent itself.

Posted by: Timothy at November 12, 2004 12:46 PM

I second the motion that the Upper Left Washington contains the stupiest sate GOP in the country. (Although it seems Illinois is vying for the honor this year.) The lack of any leadership at the top, and any statewide officeholder ,shows.

For example: In '96 the rightmost candidate (a woman named Craswell) won the primary with about 30% of the vote and taking that as a mandate, proceeded to get crushed by Locke. Two years later— she's quit the GOP for the Constitution Party and her husband is running under that label for Congress in my district against GOP incumbent Rick White and Jay Inslee. He made it known that he was only running to get back at the lack of support his wife got two years earlier. Inslee gets a plurality with Craswell's help. Inslee won reelection again last week.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 12, 2004 1:52 PM

Raoul, once this election is finally over, I'm going to write a probably lengthy critique of the WAGOP's handling of it. If you have any other insight, anecdotes, etc., I'd love to hear them--drop me a line at tim@timothygoddard.com if you have a chance.

Posted by: Timothy at November 13, 2004 12:50 AM
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