October 29, 2004

PACIFICATION:

Kerry's edge on Bush in California narrows (Bill Ainsworth, October 29, 2004, San Diego Tribune)

Democrat John Kerry's lead over President Bush has narrowed to seven points among likely California voters, while Sen. Barbara Boxer has increased her lead over Republican Bill Jones to 19 points, according to the latest Field Poll.

The nonpartisan poll showed that the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards has support from 49 percent of likely voters, while Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are favored by 42 percent. Nine percent are undecided.


It seems entirely within the realm of possibility that Mr. Kerry will win nothing West of the Mississippi nor South of D.C..

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 29, 2004 11:42 AM
Comments

I hate to be the little contrarian but I think Kerry will win more than a couple of states west of the Mississippi (CA, WA and OR) but probably nothing south of D.C.

Posted by: pchuck at October 29, 2004 11:54 AM

Whatever that substance is, I'd sure like some.

Posted by: curt at October 29, 2004 11:54 AM

Mr. Kerry will win nothing West of the Mississippi nor South of D.C..

In CA Bush has to overcome a SEVEN-POINT HANDICAP IN THREE DAYS? With all the illegal aliens and fictional voters voting Dem on provisional ballots? Highly unlikely.

You're sounding like a guy I know in '96 who was always WITNESSING! to me how DOLE *WILL* BEAT CLINTON!

Posted by: Ken at October 29, 2004 12:12 PM

Key question is whether sending Cheney to HI is a sign of desperation or a good chess move.

It's like giving up a bishop (the VP) to take 2 pawns (Kerry's daughter and some celebs).

Posted by: JAB at October 29, 2004 12:17 PM

Now Ken, the Red Sox finally won and oj can be forgiven for being somewhat giddy.

Posted by: M Ali Choudhury at October 29, 2004 2:16 PM

Either almost all the polls are wrong or almost all the anecdotal evidence is wrong. I'm stuck believing both are wrong. This week's polls are particularly unreliable (wait for Halloween) and anecdotal evidence is always subject to the Kael effect (he can't have won, no one I know voted for him).

For what it's worth (almost nothing) I was talking with two Mass. union members today, both of whom are voting for the president. They don't trust Kerry on terror and one said that a candidate who admits to wanting to raise taxes on anyone really wants to raise taxes on everyone.

Posted by: David Cohen at October 29, 2004 2:16 PM

pchuck, curt, Ken - The reason its possible, although unlikely, is that if Bush is a clear winner based on Eastern Time Zone wins in Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, maybe even Connecticut, then the anti-Bush vote may collapse in the Pacific Time Zone. CA, OR, and WA could easily swing 7 percentage points if the Dems are demoralized and Reps energized 3 hours before voting concludes.

Posted by: pj at October 29, 2004 4:41 PM

Field polls are anywhere from 5-10 points Democrat. The poor performance of Bill Jones is a disappointment. Boxer is eminently beatable.

Posted by: Bart at October 29, 2004 7:46 PM

Orrin:

I know you want President Bush to win every state, but he won't. Your thinking the President will win California is equivalent to third-parties thinking their guy will win the presidency.

Posted by: Vince at October 30, 2004 5:04 PM
« SHOWGIRLS, THE SEQUEL (via John Resnick): | Main | HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF: »