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Religious Leaders Ahead in Iraq Poll: U.S.-Supported Government Is Losing Ground (Robin Wright, October 22, 2004, Washington Post)

In positive news for the administration, the poll found that 85 percent of Iraqis want to vote in the January election.

Despite the current strife, about two-thirds of Iraqis do not believe civil war is imminent, the poll found. Asked if their households had been hurt by violence, injuries, death or monetary loss over the past year, only 22 percent of those questioned said yes -- a figure that surprised pollsters and U.S. officials.

With voter registration due to begin Nov. 1, the poll found that 64 percent of Iraqis are still unwilling to align with any party, which U.S. officials attribute to the legacy of the Baath Party. The most valuable indicators, officials say, may be the data on Iraq's politicians.

The poll found the most popular politician is Abdel Aziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The group was part of the U.S.-backed opposition to Saddam Hussein and is now receiving millions of dollars in aid from Iran, U.S. officials say.

Hakim had 80 percent name recognition among Iraqis, with more than 51 percent wanting to see him in the national assembly, which will pick a new government.

Allawi had the greatest name recognition of any politician, with 47 percent of Iraqis supporting him for a seat in the new parliament. But rebel Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr came in a very close third, with 46 percent backing him for an assembly seat.

The most pleasant surprise of Afghanistan and Iraq continues to be the political maturity of their populations, far more ready for self-rule and the restoration of civil society than we thought they could be after years of totalitarian rule.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 22, 2004 1:49 PM