October 23, 2004

INDIA, SHE'S A BRICK HOUSE:

‘India could overtake China in 15 yrs’ (Indian Express, October 22, 2004)

The third Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) report by Goldman Sachs, projected that the share of the four nations in world growth could double from 20 per cent in 2003 to 40 per cent, in 2025. In fact, industrialisation in India and China could push the world growth rate to above 4 per cent over the next few years.

The report, published a week ago, points out that in the three big areas of market development: energy and oil, cars and market capitalisation, Bric have the potential to be a major source of growth within 10 years and perhaps a dominant one within 20. In the next decade, Bric will have a major impact on the oil and energy markets, which clearly are the pressure points for growth.

Bric will emerge as big consumer markets in the next phase to be followed by their prominence in the capital markets, where there could be a lag, the report states.

In the next three years itself, the number of people with incomes over $3,000 (middle class) could double and touch 800 million in a decade, which is higher than the combined population of the US, Western Europe and Japan. In India, the middle class is expected to increase 14 times in the next 10 years, compared to 10 times in China. By 2025, Bric could have over 200 million people with incomes of over $15,000.

As far as global oil demand is concerned, China’s contribution would remain high, but is likely to peak in 5-10 years and would decline steadily thereafter. India’s impact will become gradually more important and its contribution to global demand growth could overtake China’s in 15 years.


China's decline is more likely to be precipitous than steady.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 23, 2004 9:24 AM
Comments

Are we supposed to be impressed by how large their "middle class" is, when it is defined by those making $3000/yr?

Posted by: brian at October 23, 2004 2:25 PM

Save for its oil, why is Russia part of this group?

Posted by: jim hamlen at October 24, 2004 1:05 AM


brian:

It's all relative. People making three grand a year in India live as well as people making twenty grand in the States.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 24, 2004 4:09 AM

Well, maybe if they don't drink the water.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at October 24, 2004 2:50 PM

Put a piece of cheesecloth across the mouth of a jug, to filter the water, and it's almost as good as well-water in the States.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 24, 2004 5:16 PM

>China's decline is more likely to be
>precipitous than steady.

Which ups the chances for a rushed war of conquest and/or take out any rivals (with the nuclear missiles that same rival sold them under Great Leader Bill and Dear Leader Hillary) when they realize they're hitting the wall...

Posted by: Ken at October 25, 2004 12:35 PM
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