October 23, 2004
President Bush Job Approval (Rassmussen Reports, October 22, 2004)
Fifty-four percent (54%) of American voters say they approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President.
Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters disapprove.
The President's Job Approval has not dipped below 51% since the Republican National Convention.
President Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry by two points (47%-45%), after a strong day of polling, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1206 likely voters was conducted from Wednesday through Friday (October 20-22, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 23, 2004 9:28 AM
Pollster John Zogby: "Bush had a stronger single day of polling, leading Kerry 49% to 46%. For the first time, in the one-day sample Bush had a positive re-elect, 49% to the 48% who feel it's time for someone new. Also in the one-day sample, Undecideds were only 4%. Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?
Good news indeed! This I believe is the key to it all. However, I am a bit on edge, especially with Ohio. Perhaps being on edge is good for the GOP.
I've been wargaming the EV count with the LA Times' interactive electoral map. There are several scenarios under which the GOP won't need Ohio if it retains Florida, though they involve winning Iowa and/or Wisconsin - both of which are doable this year.
Joe: I don't think there is any need to wargame anything. With a 54% job approval, Bush should get 55+% of the popular vote, and there is no way he could lose the electoral vote.
I think President Bush has a good shot at winning Iowa this year. My impression on trips from southeast to north central Iowa is that Bush is leading the bumper sticker-yard sign poll. No Republican is afraid to put one out, unlike some areas of the country.
After being stiffed for the VP slot, the Vilsacks seem to have become awfully quiet. I've only read a couple of pro-Kerry statements from him.
Bush might also benefit from some 'reverse-coattails' since Republican Sen Chuck Grassley is on the ballot this year.
I think Bush picks up IA and WI. And if present trends continue add MN, MI, and PA. Barring a DUI charge or some type of Bush flub I think the map will be solid red from the Northeast to the West Coast with the exception of Illinois.
Bush will win both Ohio and Florida.