October 29, 2004

FAIR SKY AT MORNING:

Economy Grows at 3.7% Rate in 3Q (Jeannine Aversa, October 29, 2004, AP)

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter -- a pace that was slightly better than in the spring but not as strong as many analysts expected. Friday's government report was the last such broad snapshot of economic activity before Election Day.

The reading on gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-to-September quarter followed a 3.3 percent growth rate in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.


Plug that into the Fair model and it's awfully hard to see how the President doesn't win by a rather significant margin in this election.


MORE:
Meanwhile, Senator Kerry thinks we should be more like France, Weak data buffets French economy (BBC, 10/29/04)

A batch of downbeat government data has cast doubt over the French economy's future prospects.

Official figures showed on Friday that unemployment was unchanged at 9.9% last month, while consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in October.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 29, 2004 9:14 AM
Comments

Fair predicts Bush will win with 57.48% of the vote. I wouldn't bet the mortgage on a high number like 57.48%, that is about 4 % too high.

Posted by: pchuck at October 29, 2004 10:56 AM

You have to figure in the media-bias factor regarding economic news reporting: subtract -2% from GDP for Republican administrations and add +2% for Democratic ones.

Posted by: Gideon at October 29, 2004 2:15 PM

The story is being reported as a disapointment. But in the FAIRMODEL 3.7% is a GOODNEWS Quarter.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at October 29, 2004 4:12 PM
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