September 17, 2004
VISION TRUMPS VITRIOL:
Poll finds doubts on Bush, but trouble for Kerry (Adam Nagourney and Janet Elder,, September 18, 2004, NY Times)
In one particularly troublesome sign for Kerry, a majority of voters said that he is spending too much time attacking Bush and talking about the past, rather than explaining what he would do as president.
By contrast, a majority said Bush has offered a clear vision of what he wants to do in a second term. [...]
The Times/CBS News Poll had Bush with 50 percent of the vote, compared with 42 percent for Kerry. When Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, is included, Bush leads by 50 percent to 41 percent, with Nader drawing 3 percent of the vote. [...]
The Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll of 1,088 registered voters was conducted last Sunday through Thursday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll found that 61 percent of respondents now expect Bush to win the election in November; that is up from 44 percent in March.
The Times/CBS News poll began 10 days after the Republican convention, by which point - if history is any guide - the normal post-convention boost candidates typically enjoy has faded.
No one else would be doing much better given the good economy and Mr. Bush's incumbency, but Mr. Kerry's decision to go personally negative before establishing a positive image with voters has the potential to depress his own turnout and that of fellow Democrats, which would be catastrophic.
Poll: Bush Opens Lead Over Kerry (CBS News, Sept. 17, 2004)
Bush appears to have done a much better job mobilizing the support of his base of traditionally Republican voters than Kerry has with some traditionally Democratic groups:Posted by Orrin Judd at September 17, 2004 8:18 PM
Bush receives the support of nearly nine in ten Republicans; only 7 percent plan to support Kerry. Bush also has the votes of nearly eight in ten conservatives, and he solidly receives the vote of an important voting bloc that has traditionally backed Republicans -- white evangelicals. Conservative white evangelicals are even stronger in their support for the President.
While Kerry does have the votes of most liberals, a sizable chunk -- 20 percent -- support Bush. That is more than the percentage of conservatives who are crossing over to support Kerry. One historical source of support for Democratic candidates -- union households -- has yet to solidly back Kerry. Kerry receives just under half of the vote from this group, and nearly four in ten voters who live in a union household plan to support Bush. Nearly all African American voters are supporting Kerry.