September 29, 2004
POTEMKIN SCIENCE
Illarionov Says Kyoto Will Be Ratified (Greg Walters, Moscow Times, September 29th, 2004)
Andrei Illarionov, the country's fiercest opponent of the Kyoto Protocol, said Tuesday that Russia will ratify the international treaty to limit greenhouse gases even though he believes the move will destroy its chances of doubling GDP by 2010.Illarionov, President Vladimir Putin's top economic adviser, said Russian officials do not believe in the treaty's scientific or economic merits but will ratify it anyway in a political gesture toward the European Union.
The EU has long been pressing Russia to move forward on Kyoto, which needs Russia's ratification to come into force.
Asked Tuesday whether Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, Illarionov said simply, "I think so."
The move would be a purely political calculation for Russia, he said. But he declined to say what Russia might receive in return.
"It's not back-scratching," he said by telephone. "It's a gesture toward the European Union. Nothing more."
Illarionov said senior officials believe the treaty will not help the environment or boost the economy, contrary to claims by its supporters. He declined to comment on Putin's personal views.
"Nobody among Russian officials believes the protocol is good for Russia," Illarionov said. "Nobody sees any sense in the economic nature of this document. Nobody sees any scientific relevance in this document. Nobody sees any advantages for Russia in this document. It is just purely politics."
Isn't it reassuring to know that international law is based upon the best science available and a common altruistic resolve to make the world a better place?
Posted by Peter Burnet at September 29, 2004 5:50 PM"It's a gesture toward the European Union. Nothing more."
They give the US the occasional gesture also.
Finger fully extended.
This is, of course, exactly what Senator Kerry means when he talks about repairing our relationship with our allies.
Posted by: David Cohen at September 29, 2004 6:49 PMI don't see any mention of whether Russia will obey the treaty. Perhaps they've learned something from France.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 29, 2004 6:54 PMAOG:
I was going to put that French dig in the post, but it is a serious problem for the Brits and Nordics in the EU and also for the States in UN related stuff. You may recall the Jerusalem Post article about a month ago about the French and how there is a big difference between their ideals and their actions, in the sense that they fully expect a discontinuity between the two and don't see it as strange or hypocritical. Anglo countries and the Nordics tend to assume that legal commitments are just that, but the Latins and Russians tend to see them as idealistic goals they hope to get around to some day. What astounds me about this story is how an advisor to Putin could speak so frankly without resigning or being canned.
Posted by: Peter B at September 29, 2004 8:13 PMPeter: I assumed that was part of the deal their striking. Ratify, but don't even pretend to take it seriously.
Posted by: David Cohen at September 29, 2004 8:14 PMDavid:
If they were dealing with the French, Italians, Spanish or Greeks, it surely was. Goodness knows what the Brits, Dutch and Swedes told them.
Posted by: Peter B at September 29, 2004 9:21 PMThe Ruskies have a very big incentive to ratify. under the treaty they are eligible to recieve payments from the EU for reducing their use of CO2 since the base year which was some time back in the heyday of the soviet union. since they burned a lot more fuel back then. They are in a position to collect big payments.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 30, 2004 2:12 AMAcually I think that is not quite right right and it has something to do with tranferable quotas to emit CO2 which are based on some old number which they will never equal again. same result.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 30, 2004 2:14 AMMr. Burnett;
Perhaps the advisor is operating on Putin's instructions. One reason would be for domestic political consumption -- i.e., Putin is doing something that is detrimental to Russia's interests in order to acquire something (more) beneficial. Alternatively, Putin's upset at having to sign and is using Illarionov to mock the Europeans even as he signs to indicate that he's not a patsy but simply the victim of extortion.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 30, 2004 9:53 AM