While it certainly could portend the demise of Kerry, I for one would urge caution. Wasn't it at around this same point before the Iowa caucuses that everyone was writing off Kerry when he was being trounced by Dean in the polls and he changed his campaign personnel? While it could just be coincedental, and Dean showed himself to be the amateur that he was, I would hate to start celebrating before the game is over.

Kerry's success in the primaries was due to being the least bad choice of an undistinguished field of candidates. Dean, Edwards, Clark, Kerry, Kucinich, Sharpton. Who were you going to chose? Was there any alternative realistically?

Well, just to be contrarian and argumentative, I think Dean had potential. Other than his outburst in Iowa, he was a good salesman (he definitely panicked in Iowa). Blacks would have voted for him and in good numbers, but most importantly he would have been honest and comfortable with his principles and that of all of the Democratic constituent groups, except perhaps the Zell Miller, Lieberman group ( who should be Republicans anyway).

Instead of a Kerry getting himself twisted into a pretzel, Dean would have forced Republicans to work hard to defend the Iraqi War and I suggest Bush would be coming across as more of a radical on Domestic Policy than he has at the present time. In other words Dean would come across as the cautious conservative appealing to "soccer moms" more than Kerry is capable of.

IMHO Dean is articulate while Kerry comes across as a pompous buffoon. Dean's articulateness would contrast Bush's bumbling style much more positively for Democrats than Kerry's aloofness.

Enough of this since I'm merely throwing out unprovable assertions. Final proof I guess is that Dean lost big time.

Dean was their best candidate for the general but too scary for a party that doesn't want to return to its principles.

All the convention praise from the press is making me very nervous.

David:

What about Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook reversing their predictions in favor of Kerry?

I still predict that at least one Democrat running for re-election will actually endorse Bush.

The DUI didn't help, but one reason Gore was able to close in 2000 was that the Republicans coasted the last ten days, thinking that it was in the bag. The time they spent in California should have been spent in Florida. I don't want to see them getting overconfident again.

Having said that, one of the classic signs of a losing presidential campaign is congressional candidates running away from the nominee. This started happening in the summer, when candidates in the South asked Kerry to stay away; picked up speed in Boston when candidates in close races made, at best, drive-by appearances at the convention; and is now gathering speed with Daschle's ad embracing (literally) W.

I'm with MB on caution, but I do think Kerry's blown it with the DNC and the inevitable SBVT response.

Gideon, Kerry was more than the least bad choice. He was thought to be the Trojan horse the Leftists in the Democratic party hope to ride within to the Whitehouse. Turns out he was made of smoked glass.

h-man:

I think that Dean would have been the left's Barry Goldwater, "A choice not an echo." He would have lost in the same way but at least the Dem's would have been true to themselves and would have set a stake in the ground about who they are and what they believe. Now with Kerry imploding and 2008 shaping up as Hillary v. Edwards they will be putting this day of reckoning off by another 4-8 years. As long as they try to keep finessing the electorate they will continue to drift.

I doubt if Dean would have drawn more black support than Kerry is - psychotic leftist angst (particularly from the youth) doesn't mix with the African-American scene. Dean obviously has more energy, but he doesn't have the touch with the black community that Clinton and Gore had. Dean would have drawn like Mondale did (remember the SAWBs?).

Gideon -
Kerry the "least bad choice"?! Only if you have no historical memory whatsoever.

The first time I heard Mr. "Oh those were somebody else's medals I threw over the fence" described as "electable" my jaw hit the floor, and it stayed there for the rest of the primary season.

I still can't figure out how he won. Even the slightest bit of "due diligence" on the candidate's potential negatives would have found that he had a bit of an image problem with some veterans, to put it mildly.