September 13, 2004
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN:
"Abortion Legalization and Lifecycle Fertility" (Elizabeth Ananat & Jonathan Gruber, MIT Dept of Economics, and Phillip Levine, Wellesley College & NBER)
Previous research has convincingly shown that abortion legalization in the early 1970s led to a significant drop in fertility at that time. But this decline may have either represented a delay in births from a point where they were 'unintended' to a point where they were 'intended', or they may have represented a permanent reduction in fertility. We combine data from the 1970 U.S. Census and microdata from 1968 to 1999 Vital Statistics records to calculate lifetime fertility of women in the 1930s through 1960s birth cohorts.... Our results indicate that much of the reduction in fertility at the time abortion was legalized was permanent in that women did not have more subsequent births as a result.
Some commenters have argued that abortion may not reduce overall fertility. Apparently it does. Dead babies don't come back.
Posted by Paul Jaminet at September 13, 2004 9:56 PM
Reduced fertility was seen as a positive in the 70s.
Now we perceive a problem with too few births.
Since women now can control when they give birth, why not give them incentives to do so ?
"Job splitting" seems like a good place to start, where two women share the same position.
Since we know that welfare promotes pregnancy, we could rescind the time limit on AFDC.
However, Sweden has child-birth benefits never dreamt of in America, and they still aren't bursting at the seams with kids, so money alone isn't an answer.
(Yeah, yeah, I know, "religion").
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 13, 2004 11:53 PMMichael
"Since we know that welfare promotes pregnancy, we could rescind the time limit on AFDC"
Yes Michael that would certainly cure what ails us. Truly one of the most brilliant insights ever posted at this site. Do you have anymore ideas, you would like to share with us?
Well, if you're not keen on that, we could always annex Mexico - Or just open the border.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 14, 2004 5:33 AMMichael
Darn, you sure are on a roll. But you left out Haiti, I understand Haitian scientists are making breakthoughs in fertility enhancement (or was it enlargement?). I get emails about it all the time.
Posted by: h-man at September 14, 2004 7:06 AMh-man:
Funny.
Anyone who builds a raft out of driftwood and braves the Atlantic to get here is welcome in my America.
M Ali:
The later taxes cancel out the immediate welfare benefits of having kids in Sweden ?
Maybe so, I know that most "large" families in Sweden consist of three children, as that's how many fit across the back seat of a Volvo.
(Or so I'm told).