September 6, 2004


Bush leads Kerry by 7 points (Susan Page, USA TODAY)

President Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism.

As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.

According to this poll Mr. Bush precisely met the pre-convention target, adding 3% to his popularity rating.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 6, 2004 5:48 PM

RealClearPolitics' approval-rating poll now has an average advantage for Bush of 5.0%, totting up all the polls taken over the past week. Peculiarly, Zogby and ARG show Bush with net losses, but all the others show gains, Newsweek and Time in double digits.

Posted by: Joe at September 6, 2004 6:12 PM

Most interesting question and result:
Which best describes your view of John Kerry and George W. Bush: both would be a good president, neither would be a good president, only John Kerry would be a good president, or only George W. Bush would be a good president? (likely voters)

Only Bush, 44%
Only Kerry, 34%

Those who think either one, or neither one, would make a good president, will either not vote or will split evenly.

So this 10 point margin confirms the 11 point margins in the Time and Newsweek polls. (I've been looking for confirmation.)

Posted by: J Baustian at September 6, 2004 7:17 PM

At least Gallup's approval rating for Bush matches their tracking percentage in the presidential race. Scott Rasmussen has been having all sorts of trouble with a significant difference between his approval number and his horse-race number. He's blaming everything on "rogue data" he got on Saturday. Is that like a "rogue nation"?

Rasmussen is also acting rather unprofessionally by attacking the Time and Newsweek polls, while refusing to release any internal data from his own poll. He's taking some lumps for this in the blogosphere.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 6, 2004 9:30 PM


Neither Rasmussen nor Zogby is taken seriously in the profession from what I understand.

Posted by: oj at September 6, 2004 10:58 PM

For what it's worth, Dick Morris said he likes Rasmussen.

Zogby apparantly is very controverial in the profession. He got the 2000 popular vote right when most were overweighting Bush, but has had some pretty spectacular failures as well. Now I think he's a bit biased given the positions he and his brother have taken against the War.

Gallup is not a bad one to follow. I still don't understand why CNN collaborates wiht USAT and Gallup while fellow TWC company Time goes it alone.

W did a great job at the convention. Now the the Kitty Kelly slime is coming out. It's gonna be ugly.

Posted by: JAB at September 6, 2004 11:15 PM

Scott Rasmussen of RASMUSSEN REPORTS is incredibly biased.

- He's business partners with LARRY KUDLOW for crying out loud.

- He's a top donor of the Republican party (check for details of 2004 donors)

- He wrote the book "GOP NATION" in which he insists that Republicans will rule the U.S. for at least the next century.

- He is an associate of numerous rightwing publications including WorldNetDaily.

Scott Rasmussen, Republican Pollster, is as B-I-A-S-E-D as they come!

Many of the sites that rate the accuracy of political pollsters won't even include "Rasmussen Reports" in their data. It's easy to see why.


Posted by: Mason Walsh at October 7, 2004 7:50 PM