September 15, 2004

D.C. DON'T COUNT:

Bush Casts Big Net; Kerry Picks Spots: Democrat's ad spending targets fewer states, possibly signaling a steeper challenge. (Nick Anderson, September 15, 2004, LA Times)

In the first full week after the Republican convention, President Bush blitzed 17 states with television commercials in an effort to capitalize on his momentum in battlegrounds from coast to coast.

At the same time, Sen. John F. Kerry spent his TV dollars in a much narrower pool of eight crucial states. [...]

"Bush is continuing with the national battleground strategy, to extend his convention bounce," said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ads for The Times. "Kerry is now cherry-picking. He's trying to extend his money and extend his buys. Either he's trying to husband his resources or he's saying the playing field is shrinking."

Another analyst said The Times' data showed the map was tilting toward Bush.

"It's getting close to where [Kerry] has got to get an inside straight," said Kenneth M. Goldstein, director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.

He noted that Kerry and the Democratic Party were no longer advertising in Virginia and Louisiana — states targeted earlier in the year — and were barely on the air in Arkansas and North Carolina.

Bush is not advertising in any of those states, which he carried in 2000. "The fact that Bush is spending zero there tells you all you need to know," Goldstein said.


By mid-October we could see a Kerry campaign that is only on the air in MA, CA, and IL, just trying to win a state.

And he will need to spend money there, Bush Cuts Into Kerry's Lead In New York (NY1, SEPTEMBER 15TH, 2004)

President George Bush is gaining on John Kerry in New York after holding the Republican Convention there.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows a post-convention bounce for the president –something Kerry did not achieve.

Kerry leads Bush by just six percentage points in the race for New York’s 31 electoral votes, 47 percent to 41 percent. A month ago, the Democrat led by 18 points.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 15, 2004 2:27 PM
Comments

No need to waste money in Illinois because the dead aren't going to change their votes because of a TV spot.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 15, 2004 3:09 PM

I've had a gut feeling about this. I think it's possible that the national election will be decided before the networks are able to call New York. Nothing empirical, just a feeling.

Posted by: Jeff at September 15, 2004 3:18 PM

Jeff - nope. I remember 2000 where they called Florida early for Gore but seemed to wait as long as possible to announce Bush states. I specifically remember Georgia where Bush won easily (and you could see him easily winning by the scrolling vote totals at the bottom of the screen) but they didn't give it to him until midnight.
All the signs look good for Bush right now but there is still 7 weeks to go and the CBS flap shows that the Dems will do anything to win.

Posted by: AWW at September 15, 2004 3:29 PM

Jeff:

Quinnipiac apparently released a poll today showing Bush down by only six points in New York.

Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at September 15, 2004 3:35 PM

The Quinnipiac results are interesting.

In NYC, 30% are "very worried" about another terrorist attack and another 35% are "somewhat worried"; they think Bush would do a better job on terrorism by 47%-45%; but they plan to vote for Kerry by 27 points (58%-31%).

Upstate, Bush leads 50%-39%.

Statewide, Bush leads among men by 3 points. Kerry leads among women by 14.

Posted by: Tom L at September 15, 2004 4:15 PM

Tom L:

I assume Kerry has a huge lead among "girlie-men"

Posted by: Jeff at September 15, 2004 4:17 PM

Marist also has a new NY poll out today with very similar results. Kerry leads 48-40 among registered voters, 52-41 among likely voters.

Jeff, still no word on the Sitzpinkler vote.

Posted by: Tom L at September 15, 2004 5:28 PM
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