September 4, 2004


Newsweek Poll: Republican Convention 2004 (September 4, 2004, PRNewswire)

Immediately following the Republican National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a 13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research Center.

And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.

In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs. 42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). In addition, more registered voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq (55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49% vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare, including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).

SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention (BUSINESS WIRE, Sept. 3, 2004)
The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.


-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.

-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.

-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry. [...]

"The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. "Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November."

Bush Opens Lead in Electoral Vote Race (RON FOURNIER, September 4, 2004, AP)
According to the AP analysis, Bush made small but significant gains even before the convention "bounce" became part of the equation.

While the Swift boat flap turned the debate away from the ailing economy and the Iraq war, the political landscape shifted just enough in Missouri, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada to nudge those states from the "tossup" category to "lean-Bush."

Three states moved from lean-Kerry to tossup -- Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

Virginia and Louisiana shifted from lean-Bush to solid Bush, with Kerry virtually abandoning efforts to expand the playing field deep into the South. Arkansas and North Carolina, home of Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, remain marginally in play.

The most ominous changes for Kerry are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two states with a combined 31 electoral votes that Democrat Al Gore won four years ago. They are the president's top targets for a pickup.

Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, were won by Bush in 2000 and are Kerry's best pickup opportunities on Nov. 2. Both are in the tossup category, narrowly so.

Because of population shifts that added electoral votes to GOP states since 2000, Kerry can reclaim every state won by Gore and still fall 10 electoral votes short of 270.

Watching the Kerry campaign is taklng on the quality of Les Nesman watching the WKRP Thanksgiving promotion.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 4, 2004 6:17 PM

Awesome allusion.

Posted by: Chris at September 4, 2004 6:55 PM

Almost makes up for the toll-road stupidity a few posts down.

Posted by: joe shropshire at September 4, 2004 7:04 PM

In a country of a over quarter of a billion people, this was the best the Dems can do for a candidate and his campaign staff?

Seeing the Peter Principle in action at this scale is not pretty.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 4, 2004 7:07 PM


I'd object to the stupidity crack but I've a soft spot for welfare kings. :)

Posted by: oj at September 4, 2004 7:12 PM

Is it time that we (meaning the MSM) can state (or admit) that the Democrats really had a weak field this year?

People respect Lieberman, but few would ever vote for him.

Graham and Clark and Kucinich are plain crazy.

Sharpton was a disappointment (in comparison to Jesse).

Gephardt flopped (again).

Edwards made enough hearts swoon to get the V-P nod, but won just one primary.

And Dean proved to be a loud bully.

It feels like 1984 - when the strongest candidate did not run (because he knew he would lose, aside from any sharpening of the spotlights on his ethical issues). In 2008, the Democrats should finish the dose of Kool-Aid and nominate Michael Moore for President.

Posted by: jim hamlen at September 4, 2004 10:03 PM

raoul - This was the candidate the Almighty wanted the Dems to nominate. See Bismarck, special providence, &c.

Posted by: pj at September 4, 2004 10:11 PM

I usually dislike the meta-poll on "who do you think will win?", but it might have some usefullness this year. All Kerry has to sell to the left is that he can win. If he can't, who's going to vote for him?

Posted by: David Cohen at September 4, 2004 10:35 PM

Kerry is even a worse candidate than I thought he'd be, and I thought he would be worse than Old Bush.

What is the Kerry constituency? I don't mean who don't want Bush to be President, I mean who wants Kerry to be President other than Tereza.

Posted by: Bart at September 4, 2004 10:46 PM


Dean was their best candidate:

Posted by: oj at September 4, 2004 11:44 PM

Hoping this doesn't send you into some Den Bestian Rant, but it was Mr. Carlson who said, "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly" if memory serves.

Love the refeence, though.

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