August 25, 2004

SMALL SAMPLE, BUT BRUTAL NUMBERS:

BUSH'S SUPPORT INCREASES IN ARIZONA (KAE-TV, 8/24/04)

A new statewide poll of 400 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University August 19 - 22, 2004, found that President George Bush has increased his support in Arizona against Senator John Kerry in the last 30 days but the race is still a statistical dead heat. Forty-seven percent said they would vote for Bush, 39 percent were supporting Kerry and 14 percent were undecided. In July, 41 percent of those surveyed were supporting Bush, 42 percent were for Kerry and 17 percent were undecided. In the current poll, when undecided voters were asked who they were "leaning toward" supporting, 53 percent said they will vote for Bush and 47 percent for Kerry.

Among voters with the highest probability of voting,* the race tightened. Forty-five percent were voting for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry and 13 percent were undecided. The race for president in Arizona remains highly polarized. Eighty-six percent of Bush's supporters and 94 percent of Kerry's supporters said they are very firm in their commitment and are unlikely to change their mind between now and November.

The poll suggests that Bush's increasing support is largely coming from registered independents. While 14 percent of the Republicans said they would cross over to vote for Kerry and 14 percent of the Democrats said they would choose Bush, independents were supporting Bush by a two-to-one margin (52 percent to 26 percent). The survey also found that people who regularly attend religious services are much more supportive of Bush than Kerry (61 percent to 29 percent). No "gender gap" was found in this poll.

Fifty-one percent of those interviewed approved of the job Bush is doing as president, 43 percent disapproved and 6 percent had no opinion.


Posted by Orrin Judd at August 25, 2004 4:02 PM
Comments

Well if 86% of Bush's support is "very firm in their commitment and are unlikely to change their mind between now and November", and 96% of Kerry's is the same, that puts Bush at 40% and Kerry at 37% - with 23% undecided or open to change. That 23% figure doesn't really seem like a "polarized electorate" to me.

Posted by: Brandon at August 25, 2004 4:25 PM

47-39 is statistically tied?. This poll looks good for Bush but others show AZ very close. Have to think Bush will take AZ especially if McCain continues to stump for him and the Swift Boat stuff hurts Kerry with the veterans in AZ.
Related note - Rasmussen poll for Florida has Bush +2 vs Kerry (49-47) which is +4 for Bush since the last Rasmussen poll. Bush's approval rating 53%.

Posted by: AWW at August 25, 2004 4:36 PM

AWW:

When you poll that few people you get a huge margin of error.

Posted by: oj at August 25, 2004 4:41 PM

OJ - I know (I took statistics) - it was my poor way of saying what you said - the small sample size makes the results quesionable.

Posted by: AWW at August 25, 2004 4:46 PM

"The Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Media."

No comment, just savoring that title.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at August 25, 2004 6:04 PM

As far as institutional names go, that one is nearly as good as The Britney Spears Foundation for the Arts (and yes, that one is real too.)

Posted by: John Barrett Jr. at August 25, 2004 11:32 PM
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