August 28, 2004

IGNORANCE IS A RENEWABLE RESOURCE

Sexed-up reports, pressure on the UN ... here we go again (Jonathan Steele, The Guardian, August 27th, 2004)

There are differences from the anti-Iraq campaign two years ago. This time the US is taking the lead in going to the UN. Bolton wants the IAEA board to say Iran has violated its commitments under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and take the matter to the security council for a decision on sanctions or other stern action. France and Germany are resisting a move to the UN.[...]

The biggest difference, though, is in Britain's stance. Unlike with the Bush campaign against Saddam Hussein, Britain is siding this time with France and Germany. It is part of a "troika" which promotes constructive engagement rather than confrontation with Iran. Their dialogue ran into a sticky phase this summer with allegations of bad faith on both sides, but the three European states are willing to keep it going.

They have powerful arguments. The disaster of the Iraq war and the failure to bring peace, stability or order make them want no repetition in Iraq's more populous and larger neighbour. Even "limited" air-strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities would unify the country and harden hostility to the west throughout the Middle East, especially if Washington subcontracted the attacks to the Israeli air force.

Most Iraqi resistance to the Americans is based on nationalist resentment, and Iranians are no different. People of all political persuasions in Tehran support their country's right to have nuclear power, and probably even bombs. Threatening them with force is not the most intelligent way to persuade them otherwise.

The defeat of Iran's reformist MPs in this spring's unfair elections, as well as the certainty that President Mohammad Khatami will be replaced by a less liberal figure next year, have not ended the chance of dialogue with Tehran. European diplomats detect the emergence of a group of "pragmatic conservatives" in the Iranian leadership who could be easier to deal with than the beleaguered liberals of the past seven years. Many are non-clerical veterans of the Iran-Iraq war who are influenced by nationalism and economic imperatives more than the revolutionary Islamic ideology of the Khomeini generation. They want better relations with the west.

Here is the voice of the left in all its mendacious fantasy. Nowhere in this article does Mr. Steele question that Iran is hellbent on acquiring nuclear weapons. Such a prospect is presumably far less worrisome than trigger-happy Americans swaggering around the globe pushing around freedom-loving peoples concerned with global warming and human rights. Although the anti-regime liberals have been crushed, he sees a quiet cabal of “pragmatic conservatives” ready to hold the mullahs back and save the day provided nobody wounds their pride by daring to put pressure on Iran about anything. Presumably, that is why the British were so clever a few months ago in allowing their sailors to be captured and publically humiliated without protest. It is called constructive engagement.

This article might have been lifted verbatim from the 1930's with only the names changed to protect the guilty.

Posted by Peter Burnet at August 28, 2004 9:15 AM
Comments

Nice post, Peter, and a funny title.

The 'pragmatic conservatives' line reminds me of the alleged 'closet liberals' in the KGB, personified by Yuri Andropov.

And has far as those multilateralists who possess the idea that Iran can be constrained by diplomatic pressure, the alliance of the civilized nations, the appropriate mixture of carrots and sticks...well, how's that workin' out for you guys?

Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at August 28, 2004 10:39 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the US take the lead in going to the UN over Iraq? What, an address by the President to the General Assembly laying out the reasons for action, followed later by a presentation by the Secretary of State (to the Security Council?) with several more resolutions sponsored by the US throughout the process don't count?

Posted by: jsmith at August 28, 2004 11:21 AM

The same dialogue could have been replayed in the cold war. The liberals are like those members of the old regime who, in Talleyrand's phrase: "remembered everything and learned nothing."

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at August 28, 2004 12:11 PM

People of all political persuasions in Tehran support their country's right to have nuclear [...] bombs. Threatening them with force is not the most intelligent way to persuade them otherwise.

Well, what is the right way to persuade a nation to abandon their nuclear ambitions ?
Iran has only to look to North Korea to see that it's possible to get monetary aid, promises of non-aggression, AND nuclear weapons.
The only thing that will deter a committed, paranoid person or nation from any chosen course of action is the threat, or use, of force.
Has any criminal, ever, been persuaded to give up their anti-social ways through bribery ?

European diplomats detect the emergence of a group of "pragmatic conservatives" in the Iranian leadership who could be easier to deal with...

The Reagan administration thought that they, too, had located some "rational", "moderate" Iranians, and attempted to build their influence in Iran by selling 'em weapons.
We all know how well that ended.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 28, 2004 1:37 PM

On a somewhat related note, I heard a snippet of a story on an NPR show yesterday discussing the Russian twin airline bombings with an "independent (alarm bells going off already) Russian defense analyst." He and the hosts were all openly skeptical that this could be terrorism, and noted repeatedly that it would be good for Putin. Never once mentioned was the fact that there are in fact Chechen terrorists who have their own insane reasons for perpetrating such an act! The political mood is very, very strange. Unhinged, more like.

Posted by: brian at August 28, 2004 2:14 PM

Generally, I agree Michael, although I offer the counterexample of Sir Henry Morgan, seduced from piracy by the offer of the lieutenant-governorship of Jamaica

Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 28, 2004 7:04 PM

Harry:

Sure. If only the Brits has offered to make Hitler Lord Chancellor.

Posted by: Peter B at August 28, 2004 9:26 PM

I thought Morgan went into the spiced rum business.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at August 28, 2004 11:32 PM
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