August 4, 2004


Presidential Vote Equation (Ray Fair, July 31, 2004)

[R]evised data and the economic predictions for 2004:3 from the US model show a slightly lower value for GROWTH, essentially the same value for INFLATION, and the value of GOODNEWS lowered from 3 to 2. These new economic values give a prediction of 57.48 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 58.74 percent before. This is, of course, still a large predicted share for President Bush, although 1.26 percentage points less than before.

This election is right at the point where folks stop talking about it being competitive.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 4, 2004 4:46 PM

So which magazine will dare to put "BLOWOUT" on their cover in October?

Posted by: brian at August 4, 2004 6:35 PM

Since the last Presidential debate is scheduled for Wednesday, October 13th, I don't expect talk of (potential) competitiveness to subside before Thursday, October 14th.

Unless, Bush & Crew decide to unearth Usama bin Laden before then.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 4, 2004 6:48 PM

There won't be three debates.

Posted by: oj at August 4, 2004 7:31 PM

This projection, along with the Iowa electroninc market and Tradesports, bring some optimism to us Bush supporters. The polls over at Realclearpolitics show the national race about tied. State by State is also promising as Bush is close in some blue states (Iowa,WI, MN, NJ) but his lead in some red states is too close for comfort (NC, FL, others)
The media will be pushing this as a competitive election right to 11/2 and then won't understand the Bush win, let alone its size.
Debates - given Kerry's plan to avoid exposure it might be Bush calling for debates
OJ - what's up with NH? the polls at Realclearpolitics consistently show Kerry about +10 - I know he's from MA but that doesn't seem possible given all the NH elected officials are GOP.

Posted by: AWW at August 4, 2004 10:13 PM


And none of the statewide guys even have serious competition. Bush will carry NH handily.

Posted by: oj at August 4, 2004 10:17 PM

"Don't get cocky" -Han Solo

I am certainly hoping fervently that Bush is re-elected, but there are still 90 days to go. A lot can happen between now and then.

I do have faith in GWB and his team, but I'm not ready to assume anything.

Posted by: BC Monkey at August 5, 2004 10:32 AM

If I recall, the largest prediction error this model has made was about 5%, in the Bush/Perot/Clinton 1992 election.

If it is off by 5% this time, Bush still wins with 52% of the vote.

Doesn't mean it can't happen, of course.

Posted by: Tom Maguire at August 5, 2004 1:17 PM