July 14, 2004
MAILING IT IN:
Edwards' Real Worth May Be in Message to Strapped Voters (Ronald Brownstein, July 12, 2004, LA Times)
Edwards might lift Kerry some, but the hill is high. Bush won all 13 Southern states in 2000, and in most recent polls the South remained his strongest region. The Kerry campaign advertised early on in Arkansas and Louisiana, but found the climate inhospitable enough to skip the states in the new ad it bought to tout Edwards' selection.
Adding Senator Edwards to the ticket but still having to write off the entire South is simply humiliating. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 14, 2004 10:52 AM
I think NRO Corner said the lack of ads in Louisiana and Arkansas was temporary. We'll see if that's true. Bush should win LA easily but some were calling Arkansas a swing state. Not sure if this helps or hurts the Dem senate candidate in LA as they would try to avoid the national Dems anyway (in AK Dem Lincoln was vulnerable but no GOP opponent).
As for Edwards the conventional wisdom was that he would help Kerry in the South, particularly NC. Friends in NC tell me that Edwards may actually hurt the Dems in NC (including Senate candidate Bowles) because Edwards isn't viewed that favorably in NC.
Erskine Bowles is too prissy to be elected. And the comparisons to Kerry will be strong, if understated (the Bowles fortune is hers, not his).
Posted by: jim hamlen at July 14, 2004 8:29 PM