FORGET MY RECORD:

Reintroducing the Candidate: Convention's Goal Is to Ensure Voters Know Kerry (John F. Harris, July 14, 2004, Washington Post)

Democratic Party leaders said yesterday they plan to make their nominating convention in Boston later this month a four-day reintroduction of Sen. John F. Kerry, enlisting his wife, children and former war comrades in Vietnam to make the case for a man they acknowledge remains an opaque figure for millions of Americans. [...]

Kerry's acceptance speech on July 29 is likely to be the most important event of his candidacy before the fall debates, and he will be introduced by his two daughters; his crewmates in Vietnam, where he commanded a Swift boat; and former senator Max Cleland (Ga.), who lost three limbs in that war.

This battle over biography -- who is Kerry and what does he stand for? -- is at the heart of the convention, strategists in both parties said yesterday. A successful event, they said, would refashion Kerry from someone still defined more heavily by who he is not -- Bush -- than by his career as a veteran, former prosecutor and a senator with a two-decade record that he says bolsters his claim that he would be an effective advocate for ordinary Americans. [...]

Convention success is measured by the numbers. Historically, effective conventions have produced a "bounce" for the nominee in polls of about 10 percentage points or more. This year, some Democrats maintain that wide swings are not possible, since surveys indicate a higher-than-normal percentage of the electorate has already chosen sides, leaving a smaller number of undecided voters.

Even so, strategists say Kerry's goal is obvious: to emerge from Boston and the extended national exposure a convention offers with an unambiguous lead over Bush. This will force Bush to have an equally successful Republican convention and public opinion bounce just to reach parity. On the other hand, if Kerry stumbles in Boston, Bush could use his convention in New York at the end of August to open up a commanding lead once the campaign homestretch begins on Labor Day. [...]

Mark Penn, a pollster for Clinton, said that if Kerry's support does not grow, it is a bad sign for him. Historically, he said, winning candidates receive a 12-point jump in their polling support, and even in a more polarized environment Kerry's aim must be a gain in numbers approaching double digits by the first week in August. Penn argued that Kerry has no more important event than his address on July 29, when the task will be to present himself as both a comfortable presence and a commanding one. For challengers, convention addresses amount to a "State of the Union" address.

"Seventy-five percent of the campaign for Kerry is that week, and the rest is holding on to the gain from that week," Penn added.

Every candidate--Jimmy Carter '80; Michael Dukakis '88; Bob Dole '96; Al Gore '00--who has consciously attempted to redefine himself at his convention has gone on to lose, no matter how big an initial bounce he got. The dog and pony show may work for four days, but you are who you are and if you feel compelled to change that at this point in your life then who you are isn't good enough to win is it?

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 14, 2004 10:29 AM