July 20, 2004

BLUE BATTLEGROUND:

Nader campaign could hurt Kerry in Minnesota (Associated Press, 7/19/04)

Another presidential poll found that Minnesota could go either way for president in November, and the new numbers suggest that Ralph Nader could be a deciding factor.

The poll commissioned by the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio shows that 45 percent of Minnesota voters would vote for Democrat John Kerry, while 44 percent favor President Bush.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, which makes the race a tossup. Only 2 percent would vote for independent candidate Nader. The remaining 9 percent were undecided.

Nader is "keeping the state pretty competitive," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. Mason-Dixon conducted the telephone poll of 625 registered voters last Monday through Wednesday.

Without Nader in the race, Kerry's lead increases slightly, to 48 percent over 45 percent for Bush.


Mr. Kerry could end up like Walter Mondale, staging a last ditch effort in MN in hopes of winning 1.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 20, 2004 2:20 PM
Comments

The MN polls put out by the Twin City newspapers and MPR have a documented history of left bias (no surprise). For governor they put Hubert Humphrey III in first place, Coleman second, and Jesse Ventura third (the actual results were the opposite). In 2002 they had Mondale beating Coleman for Senate 47-39, and in 2000 they had Gore in a 10 point cakewalk over GWB (he won by 2.5 points).

Posted by: Gideon at July 20, 2004 7:34 PM

Minnesota seems, based on the 2002 election where GOP won the governorship and Senate, a state where Bush should win. Hopefully these polls reflect either the current Kerry focus in the media or lefty bias as noted by Gideon and Bush will take Minnesota.

Posted by: AWW at July 20, 2004 8:03 PM

Mondale won MN in 1984 by about 10,000 votes. While it doesn't mean much for this year, a Kerry win there won't be by more than that (I think Bush will carry it - MN is changing).

Posted by: jim hamlen at July 20, 2004 8:41 PM

Oh, I just hope that Ralph Nader takes away enough votes from John Kerry. Aside from assuring a Bush win, it could finally put to rest all this nonsense about third-parties. Vore Republican or Democrat or don't vote at all.

Posted by: Vince at July 20, 2004 10:23 PM

Wouldn't he be making his desperate last stand in Massachusetts?

Posted by: James Haney at July 20, 2004 11:47 PM
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