June 3, 2004

TOUCH THEIR HEARTS WITH FIRE:

All-out war between Al Qaeda and house of Saud under way: Al Qaeda operations in Saudi Arabia have given the kingdom a freer hand to crackdown. (Dan Murphy, 6/03/04, CS Monitor)

For the US-led "war on terror," events in Saudi Arabia show how tricky the task of counterterrorism has become. While the US State Department's 2003 "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report, released in April, found that international terrorism - defined as incidents in which the members of more than one country are involved - was at a 34-year low, most of the gains were made in Latin America and in Africa.

The report found a 28 percent increase in attacks in the Middle East over 2002 - almost all of them tied to Al Qaeda or militants with similar ideals. Since the US invasion of Iraq last year, there have been six major terrorist attacks in the Middle East, inspired by or linked to Al Qaeda, killing 85, compared to three in the region during 2002.

There is a small silver lining. Analysts like Mustafa Alani, a Middle East security analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, say that the attacks inside Saudi Arabia have turned a broad swath of Saudi public opinion against Al Qaeda, creating the conditions for the kingdom to pursue an "open war" against the group. Until the past year, the kingdom was afraid of inflaming popular sentiment with an all-out campaign, but Al Qaeda operations have given the government a freer hand. It began with the May 12, 2003, suicide attacks on three housing compounds for foreigners in the capital, Riyadh, which killed 36 people, most of them Saudis.

"[Osama] bin Laden can't claim that he's only killing Westerners or foreigners anymore,'' says Mr. Alani. "The May attack ... really changed the perception of the population and that allowed the government to become fully committed in pursuing them."


There could not be better news in the war on terror than open civil war between the Islamicists and the Sa'uds.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 3, 2004 10:32 AM
Comments

Until we see terrorists killed every week, and also lots of arrests, I won't believe in any 'civil war'. Besides, isn't a major component of such a civil war the arrest and/or disappearance of the patrons? If the Saudi govt. arrests some of its own (including family), then we will know they are serious.

Posted by: jim hamlen at June 3, 2004 1:34 PM

Winfield Scott

Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 2:07 PM

And when it's over, the winner will be . . . an Islamist movement dedicated to exterminating the West.

I can hardly wait.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 3, 2004 2:47 PM

"All-out war" would be more believable if they hadn't just allowed three terrorists free passage from the scene of a mass murder.

Posted by: pj at June 3, 2004 4:07 PM

pj:

Isn't the point of a civil war that your enemy is within?

Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 4:37 PM

Notice that Mr. Alani said that Bin Laden "can't claim that he's only killing Westerners or foreigners anymore." As if to say if he were, it would be OK.

Posted by: Bartman at June 3, 2004 6:31 PM

>And when it's over, the winner will be . . . an
>Islamist movement dedicated to exterminating the
>West.

And one that's weakened itself by its own infighting and open civil wars.

Ever read the James Michener novel The Source? It traces a fictional village in modern Israel from the 15th Century BC to the 20th Century AD. Of interest about infighting is the chapter set in the 7th Century AD:

The village is Christian, in the midst of one of those theological disputes that convulsed the Byzantine Empire --

"TWO WILLS AND ONE NATURE! DIE, HERETIC!"
"ONE WILL AND TWO NATURES! DIE, HERETIC!"
"TWO WILLS AND ONE NATURE! DIE, HERETIC!"
"ONE WILL AND TWO NATURES! DIE, HERETIC!"
"TWO WILLS AND ONE NATURE! DIE, HERETIC!"
"ONE WILL AND TWO NATURES! DIE, HERETIC!"

They are so absorbed in this Important Theological Controversy that they don't notice the riders coming from the South, in the direction of the Arabian Peninsula...

Well, by the end of the day they are all in one accord -- as Dhimmis, on their knees bearing tribute on the backs of their hands, all shouting "ALLAH-U AKBAR!" with scimitars at their throats.

Posted by: Ken at June 3, 2004 8:32 PM

Bartman:

Who in the West would care if he were only killing Arabs?

Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 9:55 PM

I'd think better news (assuming Bush wins the election) would be open collaboration between the Islamicists and the House of Saud.

Posted by: jsmith at June 3, 2004 10:51 PM

The whole thing is a saudi civil war. I do not know whether bin Laden is a principal or an agent, but I am fairly sure that he has been working since day 1 for the take over of the House of Sa'ud.

The purpose of the 9/11 attacks was to drvie the US out of Arabia, as he had driven us out of Somolia and Hezbolah had driven us out of Lebanon.

It didn't work at first, but the useful idiots may yet bail him out.

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