I did a back-of-envelope calculation. Assuming 16000 miles/year, driving a Toyota Prius (50 mpg) instead of an SUV (20 mpg) would save about $1000/yr in gas at current prices.

The EPA estimation method tends to underrate conventional cars and overrate hybrids; if you're mostly doing highway driving, a compact conventional car will likely match the hybrids for $3k less.

And the electicity to run the other part of the hybrid car? That's free, right?

Does anybody remember the diesel car craze in the late 70's, when gas prices skyrocketed? Does anybody remember what happened with all those diesel cars a couple of years later?

fred:

Well, actually that electricity is generated by the car's gasoline engine, so that is already factored in.

Didn't I read an article just the other day about new hybrid owners' frustration that they weren't experiencing mileage numbers as promised?

I have friends that drive hybrids, and they consistently report much higher mileage than conventional cars. It's generally a bit less than advertised, but still significantly higher.

My understanding is that it is word of mouth that is prompting more people to buy hybrids. If highway driving reduces mileage, than that's simply a factor for people to consider when they buy. But simply because it may not be the best car for everyone does not mean it's not a good car for many people.

I don't understand why some people act as if they are threatened by the popularity of hybrids.

Chris:

It's a right-wing knee-jerk reaction to environmental concerns jibing with common sense.

If they were influenced by price, they would not buy new cars. Period.

Except that cars just keep getting cheaper and cheaper too.

My wife and I consider low mileage a "safety premium" for her SUV. Plus it hauls all our kids and gear with ease.

Well, the main reasons I don't own a hybrid are that they're still relatively expensive up front and that the technology is still pretty new. Also, right now, you couldn't get one for love nor money in a lot of places, they're doing such a land-office business. Give it a few more years, though, and the technology should really be mature and prices should be down - but by then the first fuel-cell cars will likely be about ready to enter the market.

No new car is as cheap an old one. I buy 'em used and run 'em till they quit being reliable -- which is about 15 years if you take care of them.

If gas were $50/gal., I'd still be driving cheaper than guys in hybrids.

John the article was in Wired and you can read it at this">http://www.wired.com/news/autotech/0,2554,63413,00.html">this link.

But I think Gideon's calculation is a bit misleading. The choice is not SUV vs hybrid. It's SUV vs sedan. If you decide that you can switch from an SUV to a sedan to are already way ahead on Gas. A Toyota Corolla is roughlly the same size as a Prius. But it costs about $5,000 less while its mileage is 32/40 as compared to 60/50. My calculation is that the total fuel saving in money at $2/gal. is less than $1500 over 150,000 mi. without time valuing the money. And that assumes that you get the whole claimed 25% advantage for Hybrid.

Hybrids are a technological kludge. They have strong and weak points. Their strength is that they make California Air Resources Board, Happy and produce reasonable results for drivers. This was not true with prior CARB Happy solutions like Electric cars which were way too expensive and just did not work very well for most drivers.

If your driving is gentle, mostly urban and flat and for as long as the manufacturers provide long term warranties on all drive train components including battery packs and motors, Hybrids should work fairly well.

Hybrids are a kludge they are not an ultimate solution. Diesel works at least as well from a milage perspective as hybrid, and has a number of other advantages. Its big disadvantage is political. CARB has spent so many years fighting against it, that they will not be willing to reconsider now.

Another factor is that Hybrid is not a single technology. Some parts of the technologies such as Continuous variable transmissions and instant restart can be adapted to non electrict motor driven vehicles, without the weight penalty of batteries and motors.

Robert:

Excellent analysis. Gas has to get considerably more expensive than it already is to overcome the price penalty of buying two powertrains.

That's assuming, of course, you don't have to replace one of those rechargable battery packs along the way.

Harry:

Quite right. I drive cars 24, 12, and 7 years old. Admittedly, being a self-confessed car geek goes a long way to keeping maintenance costs down, but spreading the sunk cost of depreciation over long periods is an excellent way to keep transportation costs down.

i can't even fathom wanting to drive a hybrid, simply because i enjoy the activity of driving. a car is not just something that gets me from here to there, so until there is a 400hp BMW M5 hybrid, i'll spend more discretionary income on gas.