WHO WILL TELL THE PUNDITS (via Kevin Whited):

Do You Know Who I Am? (Part V) (The Prowler, 5/11/2004, American Spectator)

It seems a day does not go by that newspapers don't report on the growing doubts outside of the campaign about the candidacy of presumptive Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. But now there appears to be growing doubt inside the Kerry camp.

First, there is word that his campaign plans to spend millions in media buys in supposedly safe states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts. "This early in the campaign, that just doesn't make sense unless there is some insecurity in his standing there," says a Democratic political consultant who is not working for Kerry. "It's one thing to spend a little on image or message reinforcement, but some of the dollar amounts I've heard being budgeted in New York and elsewhere would indicate that the campaign thinks it has to do more than that."

The Kerry camp is currently spending about $30 million in 20 states. Those ads are intended to "introduce" Kerry to voters in states that are up for grabs. The campaign, according to sources, intends to spend another $10 million to $15 million in other states once thought to be already in the Kerry side of the electoral ledger.

Then there is growing rift between Kerry and his policy and senior strategists. On at least two occasions in the past month, reporters have asked the candidate to defend remarks made on the stump, including positions and plans on the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and corporate outsourcing. In each instance, Kerry defended his position by first trying to clarify it, then by running away from it by blaming his speechwriters.

Kerry claimed that his speechwriters snuck in references to "Benedict Arnold" corporate citizens when he had insisted that they not do it. Likewise, he claimed speechwriters, against his orders, placed references into a major policy speech on the Middle East about his desire to bring serious Middle East hands to the negotiating table. He mentioned by name former president Jimmy Carter and former secretary of state James Baker. Then he laid out why they would be strong additions.

Never mind that it is generally assumed that Kerry reads the material he utters before he takes a podium. And never mind that it is generally assumed that most of Kerry's utterances are at least vetted if not written by senior strategist Bob Shrum. "The staff has become a convenient excuse for him on the record with reporters, kind of like his escape hatch," says a campaign worker in Washington, D.C. "Perhaps Senator Kerry doesn't think it gets noticed much, but it does. A lot of us aren't here out of loyalty to him. We're here out of loyalty to the Democratic Party. He shouldn't confuse the two."

It is to their great credit that the Democrats have recognized an unwinnable race and converted immediately to an attempt to defend tenuous House and Senate seats. But this has the distinct odor of a genuinely transformative election, which would mean that even a couple of the nominally safe seats could be lost. By October they may be reduced to running ads in HI, VT, IN, & ND.

MORE:
April Jobs Report: It's All Good (Tim Kane, Rea Hederman, and Alison Fraser, May 7, 2004, Heritage Foundation)

On its face, the April jobs report released today by the Labor Department looks good, but the details look even better. Job growth was far above expectations in both the payroll and the household surveys, the rate of unemployment dropped to 5.6 percent, hourly earnings grew by 0.3 percent, and, best of all, the number of people suffering long-duration unemployment declined by hundreds of thousands. This is the first time in years that the labor markets show universally positive gains in every area—job growth, wages, and hours—in almost all sectors and across all demographics. The U.S. economy is moving from recovery into a self-sustaining expansion.
 
Payroll employment jumped by 288,000 workers in April, the second straight month of strong employment gains. The data also show that the number of working Americans is at an all-time high of 138.57 million, according to the household survey.
 
Key points

* The unemployment rate inched down to 5.6 percent, essentially unchanged since January. This is below the average unemployment rates of the 1980s and 1990s.

* Job growth was widespread across all sectors for the second month in a row.

* Manufacturing posted jobs gains for the first time in 45 months, adding 21,000 workers in April and, with revised numbers, 9,000 in March.

* The standout sector is in “Professional and business services” with 123,000 more jobs in April. This is the one sector to watch for the evolution of domestic outsourcing employment, where small companies provide services to big companies that were previously done internally, like security, accounting, and general consulting.

* Construction employment continued its rise by adding 18,000 workers in April, or 213,000 since March 2003. This is the highest level of construction employment since March 2001. Commercial construction indicates and presages economic expansion for the workers who will eventually fill up the new buildings.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 11, 2004 1:27 PM