May 17, 2004
50-0:
Bush closes gap in Illinois despite bad grade in Iraq (KRISTEN MCQUEARY, May 17, 2004, Chicago Sun-Times)
President Bush gained on Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in Illinois in the last two months despite growing concern over Iraq and the administration's response to Iraqi prisoner abuse, a new Daily Southtown poll shows.Almost half -- 46 percent -- of those polled think Bush is handling Iraq poorly. But that hasn't hurt him in polls on the presidential race.
Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 43 percent among likely Illinois voters, but Kerry's margin narrowed considerably from a March 3 poll when he outscored the president by 13 points. At that time, focus on the Democratic presidential nomination created a Bush-bashing environment.
Posted by Orrin Judd at May 17, 2004 10:19 AM
There's a weird disconnect in the polls: How is it that Bush is ahead or within the margin of error in CA, NJ, IL, MI, etc., but behind Kerry nationally? Necessarily, he'd have to bleed some red states, and I just don't see that happening.
Posted by: Chris at May 17, 2004 10:51 AMAgree with Chris in that the polls seem weird. Either the CA, IL, etc polls are correct and Bush is heading for a big win or the national polls are right at it will be very tight or Kerry might win.
Posted by: AWW at May 17, 2004 11:04 AM Perhaps the inconsistency results from the fact that many voters, such as Y.O.S.,who are to the right of Bush are royally pissed at him for waffling, LBJ-style, on Iraq, not having the nerve to quit and not having the nerve to win.
Is the country headed in the wrong direction? You bet. But that doesn't mean we want to go further in the wrong direction with Kerry.
Simpler explanation is that they polls are polling different things -- i.e., Voting Age Population v. Registered Voters v. Likely Voters.
Typically and historically, the broader measures have been more favorable to democrats and less accurate of actual voting day tallies. Likely Voters is the most accurate, which is to say predictive.
Posted by: AML at May 17, 2004 12:34 PMThe Newsweek poll that came out over the weekend showing Bush at a 42% approval rating was the first one I can maybe ever remember being trumpeted as a serious poll that apparently just called people up, and made no efforts at screening for much of anything. I believe it had something like 1000 respondents, with about 800 of them registered voters.
It's still impossible to imagine that Kerry can avoid people finding out what an insufferable bore he is. He can't dodge the Democratic convention and the debates, can he?
Posted by: brian at May 17, 2004 1:31 PM