April 21, 2004

TRANSFORMERS! MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE:

Florida poll favors Bush (Dr. David Hill, 4/21/04, The Hill)

Most of Florida’s prestigious newspapers have accepted Mason-Dixon’s dominance and subscribe to its results — so when Coker’s latest survey of 625 Florida voters taken at the beginning of this month showed Bush beating Kerry 51 percent to 43 percent, Republicans had a strong justification for joy.

Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.) himself provided the poll’s most encouraging results. His unfavorable name recognition has risen to 42 percent in Florida, twice what it was last November, the last time Mason-Dixon polled, and several points higher than President Bush’s negatives.

The poll’s cross-tabs showed that Kerry has several notable problems. First, he’s losing 18 percent of the state’s Democrats to Bush. By comparison, Bush is losing only 7 percent of Republicans. Kerry’s problem with his base is also evident in the minority community, where 11 percent of blacks said they plan to vote for Bush.

This above-average defection of African-Americans to a Republican in Florida refutes the notion being pushed by some black leaders that their community is eager to nail Bush come November.

But the most encouraging minority result is for Hispanic voters. Only 36 percent of Cubans and other Hispanics plan to vote for Kerry. Should former Bush administration Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez win his U.S. Senate primary to join Bush on the ticket this November, Kerry could lose even more Hispanic support.


And that's before Condo Rice replaces Dick Cheney.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 21, 2004 10:53 AM
Comments

Mason-Dixon was the only one who declared black turnout really wasn't going to be that higher. It was only higher than previously because turnout was higher.

I also think they showed that W was going to win FLA, too.

Posted by: Sandy P. at April 21, 2004 11:20 AM

Slate has now joined the bandwagon, which I assume drives a stake through the heart of the idea.

Posted by: David Cohen at April 21, 2004 11:45 AM

Depending on how solid the polling numbers are to the Kerry people, those margins could put a stake in the heart of Bill Richardson's chances for the VP slot. If his inclusion on the ticket won't produce a possible shift of enough Hispanic votes to win Florida, Kerry's handlers will probably decide a Midwest running mate would be more likely to help him in November.

Posted by: John at April 21, 2004 11:53 AM

David:

That essay's just bizarre. Cheney's not being dumped because of anything he did wrong but because he served his purpose--reassuring the country club Republicans that W had adult supervision while he proved he didn't need it. But given the President's mission to transform the GOP into a permanent majority he has to run with a potential successor and given Mr. Cheney's ill health you can't keep him on in wartime.


BTW: Have you seen the story in the gossip columns about how Condi was at a function attended by a bunch of journalists and mistakenly referred to W as her husband?

Posted by: oj at April 21, 2004 12:27 PM

Orrin, this can't be right, because I'm CONSTANTLY seeing liberal publications print that Bush "has trouble" with his base. :)

Posted by: kevin whited at April 21, 2004 12:33 PM

Kevin:

yes, the Times has run that story regularly for several months now as he's stayed pegged at a robust 93%.

Posted by: oj at April 21, 2004 12:42 PM

What makes you so sure Rice will replace Cheney?

The main reason I see Cheney not running might be due to failing health; the man has some serious heart conditions. That said, Bush doesn't strike me as the type to ditch someone experienced who's worked well with him; even in his college days, he had a rep for picking the right subordinates for the job.

Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2004 1:01 PM

Ken:

Exactly. The job though is to extend GOP dominance beyond '08.

Posted by: oj at April 21, 2004 1:12 PM

OJ:

Now that March Madness is over, sounds like a Condi Prognostathon may be in order?

Posted by: John Resnick at April 21, 2004 2:12 PM

That may be redundant: if the Bush camp is smart, then there should only be a single day's difference between the Kerry resignation announcement and the Rice for Veep announcement.

Posted by: Timothy at April 21, 2004 2:32 PM

No, it will be at the convention that Cheney declares he's not running for health reasons. Then the announcement of Condi taking his spot. Even the networks will cover the convention at that point and Kerry won't get ink until the post-mortems.

Posted by: oj at April 21, 2004 2:33 PM

OJ:

I didn't see that. Of course, the President has referred to Condi similarly. Maybe Laura, rather than Cheney, ought to be looking over her shoulder.

Posted by: David Cohen at April 21, 2004 2:44 PM

I saw earlier today that Bill Bennett's darkhorse choice for Kerry's V-P is Rep. Jane Harman (CA). Interesting. But I still wonder about Ed Rendell.

Posted by: jim hamlen at April 21, 2004 2:58 PM

"And that's before Condo Rice replaces Dick Cheney."

Condo?

Posted by: GG at April 21, 2004 3:22 PM

"where 11 percent of blacks said they plan to vote for Bush."

in 2000 the Democrats really pulled out all the stops with the "scare the hell out of blacks and old people" ads. Well now that the Bush has been in office for four years and has neither repealed social security nor brought back lynching that trick isn't going to work as well this time.

Posted by: ralph phelan at April 21, 2004 3:30 PM

11% seems to be working.

Posted by: oj at April 21, 2004 3:53 PM

>>"And that's before Condo Rice replaces Dick
>>Cheney."
>
>Condo?

Calling Doctor Whoopee...

Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2004 4:57 PM

Condo Rice is a truck driver in Louisiana. He's got as much chance of replacing Cheney as Condi Rice.

Posted by: Casey Abell at April 22, 2004 12:15 PM
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