March 11, 2004
LOTS AND LOTS OF JOBS
Weekly U.S. jobless claims dip First-time applications fall 6,000 to 341,000 (MSNBC.com, 3/11/04)
The number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless aid dipped last week while the ranks of workers drawing benefits fell to a 2-1/2 year low, the government said on Thursday.Whenever you see headlines or John Kerry complaining about a 10,000 job layoff (which is almost always actually a RIF, a much different thing) or that 20,000 high-tech jobs are moving to India, remember that a very good week consists of only 341,000 Americans losing their jobs. [Or, for Charlie Murtaugh's sake, we can remember that in a really, really, really good week during a booming economy, more than 200,000 Americans filed initial unemployment insurance claims, and employers were still announcing 10,000 employee RIFs and moving overseas. The rule of thumb is that if less than 400,000 claims are filed, unemployment is decreasing.] Posted by David Cohen at March 11, 2004 10:18 AM
First-time claims for state unemployment insurance fell 6,000 to 341,000 in the week ended March 6 versus a revised 347,000 claims the prior week, the Labor Department said.
The unemployment claims number has been around/below 350K for the past months or so which implies decent job growth. In addition, today's report showed continuing claims at 3.032MM which is a recession low.
The conundrum is if people are leaving the unemployment figures why aren't the job growth numbers picking up? Either people are leaving the workforce or are being employed in ways which are not being picked up by the payroll survey (which is showing meager job growth).
On a final note the Dems will pick whatever statistics show things at their worst i.e. focus on the job growth numbers and ignore the good news being put out by the unemployment statistics, GDP, the stock market, etc.
AWW -
I think the economic intelligentsia may not be adjusting their thinking sufficiently fast to changing conditions. Job creation is a function of both the demand for labor as well as its supply. I think they are not paying attention to the latter.
A few weeks ago Greenspan commented that the growth of the labor force had slowed down appreciably since 9/11. (The charts certainly confirm that.) Moreover, the slower growth has continued even as confidence indicators have soared and the economy has recovered. He attributes this to a sharp reduction in immigration (legal and illegal) since 9/11. To that I would add the many second-wage earners who voluntarily decided to stay home, and recently the retires who had re-entered the labor force because their "nest eggs" had been depleted but which have seen their fortunes improve with the markets.
If jobs were scarce, why is personal income going up at healthy levels? If labor force growth remains subdued, the only way the economists will get their 250K+ month wishes may be for businesses to overpay or warehouse labor. In that context, job growth becomes a fetish, not a meaningful macroeconomic variable.
Posted by: MG at March 11, 2004 10:54 AMMaybe this is a "very good week" for the period 2001-2004, but I'd guess that a "very good week" in 1997-2000 looked quite different.
Posted by: Charlie Murtaugh at March 11, 2004 12:04 PMMG - thanks. Preaching to the choir a bit as I think the economy is improving. That said I probably follow the markets and economic statistics more closely than most (job requires it) so I don't think average Americans see the same positive statistics that I see. And of course there is the 1992 precedent where the Dems/media made the economy sound much worse than it was.
Anecdote - I work for a company being acquired so people I know have been out job hunting. The general scenario so far seems to be no trouble getting interviews/interest from companies but some trouble getting the actual offer.
Charlie -
When I (used to) go drinking the time frame 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM always looked different and better than the time frame around 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM the next day. The month of December, and the 5000 calories a day that come along with it always felt better than the month of January which only gave me an extra 10 pounds. But at least, in my case, the guy who drank and ate too much was the same one who paid the price.
Oh, I also remember 1997 - 2000 as being so peaceful that I began to wonder why we needed a military. I never felt so secure.
Posted by: MG at March 11, 2004 12:25 PM