March 15, 2004
JOINING THE HEMLOCK SOCIETY:
Bombs shake up war on terror: The Madrid bombs have done more than shake up Spanish politics. (Paul Reynolds, 3/15/04, BBC News Online)
If al-Qaeda was behind the Madrid bombings, it could be said that this was a significant strike by the terror group. It has forced a change of government in one of Mr Bush's leading allies.Not that Spanish voters support al-Qaeda, but nor do they support the policy in Iraq.
And, like the French and Germans, they want a rethink. In particular, they want a separation of the war on terror from the war in Iraq, which Mr Bush has said is the "front line" in the war on terror.
The arrival of the Spanish socialists back on the European scene will also shift the balance of opinion on Iraq within the European Union. Mr Blair has lost a close ally and may have to turn further east to the new members joining on 1 May to reinforce his position.
Whether they suffer rebukes from their own voters in due course remains to be determined.
Hard to believe the Tories, under Michael Howard at least, would be too much less pro-American/pro-war than Labour. But, obviously, if John Kerry were to win here it would completely change the scope and direction of our Middle East policy, tamping down the pro-democracy aspects -- which are too ambitious and universalist for the Left -- and ramping up anti-Saudiism, which could truly inflame the region, as we're seen meddling in the Muslim holy lands. On the other hand, Mr. Kerry is extraordinarily unlikely to win.
The real effect of the Spanish election then, contrary to the quickly assembled conventional wisdom, is not foreign but domestic. The Socialists are much more amenable to the Franco-German vision of the EU and that's disastrous for Europe.
MORE:
Socialist Spain a blow to US: Incoming Prime Minister Zapatero has signaled he will pull Spanish troops from Iraq. (Peter Ford, 3/16/04, The Christian Science Monitor)
"This changes all the equilibriums in Europe," says Sergio Romano, an influential Italian commentator on foreign affairs. "Spain is no longer America's main partner on the European mainland. It is definitely bad news for pro-American governments in Europe, and for sectors of the left that have tried to hold radical pacifists at bay." [...]A troop withdrawal in the wake of the train attacks, now believed to be the work of Al Qaeda, would risk drawing accusations that Spain was appeasing terrorists. A videotaped statement purporting to be from Al Qaeda and claiming responsibility for the bombings said it was "a response for your collaboration with the criminals Bush and his allies. This is how to respond to the crimes you have caused in the world and specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Polish Prime Minister Lezsek Miller, who has sent 2,400 soldiers to Iraq, told reporters Monday that he would keep them there.
"Revising our position on Iraq after terrorist attacks would be to admit that terrorists are stronger and that they are right" to continue such attacks, he said.
Spanish Socialists, however, angrily reject such charges.
It's not a blow to us--what, is Saddam going to retake Iraq because we don't have a handful of Spanish troops?--but to themselves. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 15, 2004 6:23 PM
Considering the blinding Bush hatred of some in their country, the other possible implication of the Spanish election could be an effort by some not affiliated with any Islamic terror groups to mimic a similar type of bombing in the United States in the final days before the election.
Sept. 11 dampened down the thought of using Weather Underground-style violence over the past two years by opponents of the run-up to the Iraq war, because even the most out-of-it radical leftists know the comparisons would be made to Osama's attacks. Bombing an ROTC building or the Capitol is a far less "noble" act of protest after 3,000 people have died. But Spain showed the possible risk-reward aspect to doing something so close to election day that (other than early/absetee voters) the nation would go to the polls knowing something awful had taken place, but only able to speculate on who did it.
Personaly, I think the reaction would be to boost Bush's numbers in all but a few places, since it would be perceived as terrorists trying to tell the American votes who to select as president. But all it takes is a few people with the right connections who think it's worth the gamble to blow up a few subway cars in New York or Union Station on D.C. on Nov. 1. The government obviously will be looking for a possible al Qaida attack during that time period. Hopefully, they'll also be taking some domestic security measures in the run-up to the election as well.
Posted by: John at March 15, 2004 7:25 PMThere's just no question but that the Spanish elections make attempted bombings more likely in the US in late October, early November.
Posted by: David Cohen at March 15, 2004 8:02 PM'Tis quite interesting that two weeks ago we still heard about how the U.S. "went it alone" in Iraq; now what gets played up is the fact that we had accomplices in Iraq.
We heard little about Spain's participation in the war until they "paid for it."
Posted by: hometown at March 16, 2004 1:57 AMObviously, this is not a reasoned decision on the part of Spaniards. To say its knee-jerk is to over simplify. The socialist swell there is alive and well for decades. But the real shame of this turn in their history is their official stance via their new governing party is contrary to U.S. policy and execution in this War on Terror. As such, it seems a short slippery slope on the way to having more in common with our enemies than with us.
So now what? Are they going to negotiate a truce with OBL & AQ? Really? At what cost?
Given that Terrorist are by nature devoid of reason, Spain's new lack of alignment with the only force on the globe that's leading the charge against terrorism is horribly short sighted.