If it does play out this way, it'll be a great day, indeed, when US forces finally leave Korea, 55 years after winning freedom for South Korea.

Although, only 20 years after the Berlin Wall fell, which is fairly rapid for the gov't, I guess.

That is a much needed wake-up call to the South Koreans.

Forcing South Korea to realize that it is responsible for the safety of its people will do more good, than all those American troops safeguarding South Korean butts.

American forces are required elsewhere.

A great move. "A primary reason" for moving these troops must be nothing more than the fact that boots on the ground is the last thing S Korea needs (and ironically, the first thing N Korea wants). The kind of deterrent S Korea needs can be best provided through different means. Another example of Rumsfeld's out-of-the-box leadership that will not get recognition.

OOOHH RAAHH!

Take 'em all out, if it weren't for them being in harm's way, we could have bombed the tar out of NK's reactor's months ago, and end the threat of Korean Nukes without fear of NK reprisals resulting in tens of thousands of casualties of American soldiers stationed there.

"if it weren't for them being in harm's way, we could have bombed the tar out of NK's reactor's months ago, "

If we weren't there the Chineese would have to solve this problem by themselves.

Orrin, I recommend a book called "Heroes Behind Barbed Wire" before you start being snide about the Koreans.

As for policy, the starting point has to be that Koreans want a unified Korea more than they want anything else. The inability of successive US governments to comprehend this has caused a lot of trouble.

Rumsfeld is beginning to learn the lesson that Bush I learned -- great powers need infantry. He seems slower on the uptake than Bush I, though.

12,000 soldiers, more or less, is not going to make much difference to the world's hyperpower. The US needs divisions in the dozens to get the job done.

As for policy, the starting point has to be that Koreans want a unified Korea more than they want anything else.

I guess you're talking about the S. Koreans -- and I can understand wanting to unite the N. & S., but I've gotten the impression from various sources the S. Koreans, or at least the younger ones, haven't really got a very clear notion of what life is like in the North. After you deal with the ruthless totalitarian regime, picking up the tab for N. Korea will make W. Germany's absorbtion of E. Germany look like a picnic.

There are several blogs that focus on Korea & the surrounding region -- only one I've got the link handy to is:

http://marmot.blogs.com/korea/

I think it's far from clear that a unified Korea is at the top of the list for either the North or South. Certainly the goal of the current political leadership of the South is to put off unification as long as possible, precisely because it will gobsmack the South's economy for decades.

AOG - good point. If the South wanted a unified peninsula, the North would be 10 times more hostile than they have been. The South is doing a weird dance with Kim Jong-Il, and the US isn't going to be able to step in unless the North threatens us directly (as in the countdown has started).

Harry - dozens of divisions would only arouse the Chinese (been there, done that). The NK army is of little consequence, except for their ability to kill tens of thousands of SK civilians (and not a small number of Americans) in a few hours. But the MOABs take care of that issue, at least until we run out of them (the final test is in Florida this week, I believe).

Now, for post-war scenarios, your statement makes perfect sense, but again, the Chinese probably don't want 200,000+ GIs right across the river.

The biggest problem with NK is that we could not conduct a relatively swift surprise strike and/or invasion. Too many troops and assets would be needed, and NK won't sit and wait the way Saddam did. Neither will the Chinese. The chessboard is way too narrow for us. And the topography is not on our side (although we should at least have good maps).

Also, no one wants to deal with a newly 'liberated' NK. Iraq is positively Jeffersonian compared to NK. Who wants to feed, clothe, and absorb 22 million people in a matter of weeks? Whatever happens after the NK collapse, probably 3 million or more will die.

Note I did not say what the two Korean governments want but what Koreans want. That they want one Korea is, I think, unquestionable.

When I said the US needs dozens of divisions, I did not say it needs them in Korea. It needs them in western Asia.

At least, if it intends to push a forward policy, which it should do.

jim:

There aren't anywhere near 22 million North Koreans. The first thing to remember about totalitarian governments is, they will always lie to appear more powerful, or better in some way.

Based on various guesses by government and non-government organizations, as well as surely inaccurate data provided by the North Korean government to the UN, the true population is probably in the 15-18 million range.

It's likely that three million will die BEFORE the North Korean government collapses, to say nothing of after.
The only worse places to be, that I can think of, are in the Ukraine, under Stalin, or Cambodia, under Pol Pot.

Better be careful speculating on what North Koreans want - the wishes of the people are probably fatal offenses. And while there is no doubt that families would want to be re-united, in another few years, even the memories will be gone. Will those in South want to pay the price for unity?