November 14, 2003
STUCK ON 42%:
CANDIDATES GEAR UP FOR FINAL DAY OF CAMPAIGN: Blanco, Jindal swing through state seeking support (Jan Moller and Brian Thevenot, November 14, 2003, New Orleans Times Picayune)
With signs that the governor's race is tightening in the final hours before Saturday's runoff, Democrat Kathleen Blanco and Republican Bobby Jindal hit the road Thursday to shore up core support and reach out to undecided voters. [...]Blanco touted a tracking poll that showed her making up ground on Jindal during the past three days.
The survey released Thursday by Marketing Research Institute of Pensacola, Fla., showed Jindal with 46 percent, compared to Blanco's 42 percent. Twelve percent of voters were undecided in the three-day poll taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights of people who voted in the Oct. 4 primary. That's a six-point swing for Blanco, who had trailed Jindal 49 percent to 39 percent in an earlier survey.
"I feel my campaign surging as I have moved around the state in the past few days," Blanco said in a prepared statement.
The Jindal campaign stressed the fact that the poll still shows him leading and blamed the tightening of the race on an onslaught of aggressive advertising by Blanco and the Democratic Party.
It's best never to underestimate the Democrats' capacity to turn out black votes, but Ms Blanco's inability to get above 42% in any just about poll suggests, rather strongly, that Bobby Jindal is going to be the next governor of Louisiana and an immediate national figure in the GOP.
MORE:
Not Quite Bubba vs. Bubba: Louisiana Governor's Contest Defies Stereotypes (Lee Hockstader, November 14, 2003, Washington Post)
I would love to be wrong here, but I think we have seen this movie before. The poll dynamics have begun to look very much like last year's, when Terrel seemed ahead (perhaps not by as much) and Landrieux snuck in at the end on the back of demagoguery (Sugar) and good-old-fashioned anti-Democratic palaver (she is a good old girl). I think Blanco has positioned herself so far away from mainstream DNC that the bubbas will give her better than a trivial % of the white vote. Here is where the Black vote will frustrate the GOP, again. If the polls that have Jindal ahead predict that Blacks will give him 15% of the vote, the race is lost. The same was said in MS (where Barbour was supposed to get a historically large share...and what did he get, 7%?). I think Blacks will not follow the mayor and just vote like they always have done: Dem, Dem, Dem.
Posted by: MG at November 14, 2003 2:56 PMSimilar to MG, I'm optimistic for Jindel but given its Louisiana I'm not counting on a Jindel win given how previous races have gone.
Posted by: AWW at November 14, 2003 4:22 PMI'd love to be wrong but Louisiana is just plain odd and I've got a sinking feeling about it. However, Blanco is not an incumbent like Mary L. We shall see in 24 hours.
Posted by: pchuck at November 14, 2003 10:25 PMLooks like we were right. Louisiana is a tough nut to crack for the GOP. The black vote just kills the GOP, for shame.
Posted by: pchuck at November 16, 2003 1:53 AM