I'm still betting on Friday the 21st of March.

I'm with Orrin. President Bush has decreed tomorrow to be the "moment of truth", meaning the deadline for a diplomatic solution. After that, as some Japanese diplomat once said in another circumstance, "things are automatically going to happen". For example, Tony Blair is going to call a Cabinet meeting _and_ a House of Commons session on Tuesday. It's expected that the Cabinet will endorse the operation; there will be another left-wing rebellion in Commons, but it won't stop the approval of the operation there either. Also, CNN quoted Pentagon sources an hour or so ago as saying that they'll be completely in position within 48 hours - they're ready to go _now_, of course, but they'll be even more ready to go as more units close in-theatre and get into position. There are all sorts of other signs little and big, such as the story noting that British troops in Kuwait have been strongly advised that now is a good time to place a telephone call home, and Colin Powell's statement earlier in which he, for all intents and purposes, issued the long-awaited warning to UN personnel and others in Baghdad to get out of town (5 of 8 UN helicopters in Iraq have been pulled out, and most diplomats have left Baghdad). 2 days 5.5 hours works out to just after 7 pm Tuesday. If Saddam does something stupid, it could even happen within the next 5 minutes.

Chirac is apparently now saying he's willing to accept a 30 day deadline. Now watch as Bush and Blair take the bait.

Orrin - 2 days 5.5 hours from the time of your post is Tuesday night, not Wednesday.



TBC - Nothing is going to happen in the U.N. anymore. Thus, Chirac is now irrelevant.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning Iraq time. It has to be after the Commons vote or else it's really a slap in the face.