March 21, 2003
TURKEY NEGOTIATES FOR ZERO INCOME (via Rantburg):
NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND UNITED STATES CONTINUE (Turkish Press Scan, 3/21/2003)
Although the parliament approved motion on sending Turkish troops to northern Iraq and opening Turkish airspace to U.S. planes, the Turkish and the U.S. sides failed to reach an agreement on text deal. The United States could not use Turkish airspace last night while Turkish troops were prevented from entering northern Iraq.... While agreement was reached on rules of implementation of opening air corridors, the U.S. overflights which were foreseen to start at midnight were delayed upon Turkey's request....The United States had informed Turkey of the first bombardment of the Gulf War in 1991, but this time, it did not do it. The United States informed Israel before the attack while Ankara learnt it on CNN International. Replying questions of reporters who asked whether the United States had informed Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "no"....
Former Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis referred to the financial aid shock and said, "we thought that the United States needed our assistance and made a serious mistake. It was revealed that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government made a strategic mistake during the negotiations with the United States." Yakis, who played an active role at negotiations with the United States, noted, "we did not believe that the United States had had the Plan B. We thought that the United States needed Turkey to open the northern front."
The Turkish troops in northern Iraq has begun spreading its military units to the region. Zakhu-Begowa-Batufa Highway was taken under control by Turkish soldiers. Earlier, Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) peshmerga fighters raised their objection to Turkish soldiers' control over the highway.
The Turkish government is very inexperienced. There's always a Plan B. They should have realized that you have to deal with others in order to have income: if you never transact, your income is zero. They were offered a fabulous deal, got greedy and demanded more, and lost it.
Now there's a new deal on the table: overfly rights during the war, in exchange for influence upon post-war Iraq. The overfly rights are rapidly losing value, because Iraq is surrendering and the war will be over in three or four days. If Turkey continues dithering and being too greedy, the second deal will leave the table also, and Turkey will have obtained nothing at all.
Posted by Paul Jaminet at March 21, 2003 12:01 PMSo Turkish troops are in northern Iraq? I thought this was not a good thing in that they and the Kurds might start fighting. Given all the grief Turkey has given the US over the northern front and flyovers I would think the US would keep Turkey out of northern Iraq.
Posted by: AWW at March 21, 2003 12:12 PMTurkish troops have been in Northern Iraq for weeks, and that was fine with us when we thought they would be part of the coalition. Now our view of those troops is changing . . . There is a risk that we could fall into conflict with Turkey over northern Iraq, but I think good sense will prevail.
Posted by: Paul Jaminet at March 21, 2003 12:49 PMIt's getting hard to tell the difference between effete France and muscular, leading-the-way-into-the-future Turkey. The army is too strong for the anti-government sectors of the population (practically everybody) to rise up, but Turkey as a nation is through.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 21, 2003 1:27 PMPaul -
Hopefully you're right. If the US has to turn around and fight Turkey after Iraq, while probably easily doable, wouldn't be good.
It's all about forcing the contradictions. If the Palestinians get a state, so do the Kurds.
Posted by: oj at March 21, 2003 2:15 PMAnd Armenians, Bulgarians etc. There won't be much left of Turkey, since the Turks never gave their minorities any reason to join the nation.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 21, 2003 4:14 PMSometimes what works in carpet salesmanship won't work in wartime.
Posted by: Melissa at March 21, 2003 4:56 PMoj - it would be foolish consistency to give the Kurds a state just for that reason. As you said elsewhere, free institutions first, then we can think about democracy in a new state.
Posted by: Paul Jaminet at March 21, 2003 5:21 PMLast I heard, the overflights were not happening because some bureaucrat had not filed a piece of paper.
So what have the Turks done for us lately? Nada.
The Kurds? They're lined up with our guys against the enemy.
Who do we reward? I reward my friends.
The sybil Demophile offered King Tarquin of Rome nine books of prophecies. The king wouldn't meet her price, so she burnt a three of them, and them offered the remaing six for the same price. Again he refused, so she burnt three more, and offered the remaining three for the original price. This time the king accepted, because he knew they were valuable, and he knew what would happen if he refused.
Some people don't learn from history. Too bad the sybil didn't increase the price, which is in effect what we did to Turkey.
Paul:
Since WWI and Wilson's racializing of nationhood, any recognizable thnic group that wants one gets a state. Consider only this: there are more Kurds than there are Iraqis if you include the Kurds. The question isn't will there be a Kurdistan but will there be an Iraq.
The Turks are probably in a dirty alliance with their fellow islamofascists in Tehran (the AKP is as nutty as Khamenei). I'm afraid they will wait until the Americans are spread out all over Iraq (200.000 troops isn't much in a country the size of Iraq), and attack them from all sides at that moment. Air support isn't going to prevent tens of thousands of American and British soldiers to be slaughtered in that scenario.
Face it, the Turks are back-stabbing enemies, like the French, but unlike the Frogs, they have a big and powerful army (which operates next door, so it has great logistical advantage).
Peter - we have nuclear weapons, and missiles to deliver them. That more than offsets logistical advantages.
Posted by: Paul Jaminet at March 22, 2003 7:30 AMIf Bush was really as stalwart as Orrin thinks
he is, he'd order our troops in Kurdistan to
shoot the first field-grade Turkish officer they
see and send him home with a note pinned
to his tunic: "Plenty more where this came
from. Regards, GWB."