March 21, 2003
THE WESTERN AND THEOLOGICAL FRONTS (via Rantburg):
Jordan opens up Iraq's western front (Asia Times, 3/22/2003)
[T]hunderous silence does not mean that all's quiet on the Iraqi western front. "The surprise is not the attack on Baghdad or the advance from Kuwait. The surprise will come from Jordan," a top Jordanian source who requested anonymity told Asia Times Online. The source says that well over 400 American tanks and more than 7,000 American troops may well be on their way to Baghdad from a remote launching pad in eastern Jordan.So far, the tanks and heavy military equipment have arrived by ship at the southern Jordanian port of Aqaba and have been deployed to the east shrouded in utmost secrecy. Secrecy is paramount, according to the source.
Many thanks to Jordan.
Exiled Iraqis may be praying for the end of Saddam's brutal secular regime, but at the same time they are now caught in a very serious religious conflict. The most eminent scholars at al-Azhar University in Cairo - which is the highest religious authority in Sunni Islam - have declared that a jihad against the "new crusade" targeting Islam is absolutely legitimate. According to al-Azhar's academy for Islamic research, "If an enemy descends upon Muslim land, then it is the duty of all Muslim men and women to perform jihad." The scholars are unanimous that 1.3 billion Muslims all over the world "must be ready to defend themselves, their faith and their honor".Egyptian and Saudi scholars have agreed these past few days that even if this war does not explicitly pit Christians against Muslims, the only possible reaction to the Anglo-American invasion is jihad: "Hitting American interests is an act of martyrdom."
Once Iraq stabilizes, things will change for the better in Egypt and Saudi Arabia -- or our relations with Egypt will take a sharp turn for the worse. Posted by Paul Jaminet at March 21, 2003 12:24 PM
My Prediction: Baghdad will be surrounded (if not captured) by Monday night.
This group coming out of Jordan, coupled with the decapitation of the Iraqi will be the capper.
When shock and awe ends, the Iraqi holdouts will emerge from their bunkers to find Americans owning all most of Baghdad.
Hmm, I thought you guys were predicting the democracy-loving Arabs would be dancing with joy in the streets along about now.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 21, 2003 1:25 PMSo they are, in Um Qasr and Safwan. Early next week, they'll be dancing in Baghdad. Give the ones in Cairo a little more time.
Posted by: Paul Jaminet at March 21, 2003 2:05 PMDemocracy will be a disaster. Institutions first, then democracy.
Posted by: oj at March 21, 2003 2:13 PMCurious, Instapundit has a report from Safwan about happy kids with chocolate on their faces and gleeful cries of "Ameriki," while NPR reported wary Iraqis unwilling to commit yet.
Reporters, you just can't trust 'em.
I agree about institutions, but how you gonna keep down on the ancien regime farm after they've seen democracy, if only from afar?
That's why I'm a skeptic. First, I don't think many of them (Arabs in particular, Muslims in general) find much to admire in democracy. Among the few who do, almost none desire the institutions required to put it in play, since it is incompatible with their (Muslim) religion and also with their (Arab) social culture.
Which is why the Turkish/Iranian model, of a pro-Western modernizing liberal dictatorship seems the most promising option.
Posted by: oj at March 21, 2003 11:04 PMWell, make up your mind. Turkey has
exactly two institutions -- religion and its
army. I disagree that it is either modern
or liberal, though it is certainly a
military despotism, but even if I grant you
it is a liberal military dictatorship, how
does it evolve?