January 7, 2003
THE WEST'S ONLY GROWTH STOCK:
Birthrates in global decline (Steve Sailer, January 6, 2003, UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL)Birthrates are notoriously hard to predict. Demographers generally subscribe to the comforting assumption that all total fertility rates will eventually even out at the population stabilizing replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman. There isn't much evidence for this belief, however, as shown by plummeting European birthrates.In the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, black, Asian and American Indian women all are having babies at about the replacement rate. Non-Hispanic white women are a little under that mark (1.87 in 2001). Hispanics, however, reached a fertility level of 3.16 children per woman in 2001, their highest level since the CDC began counting in 1989. Interestingly, Mexican-American women now have a higher birthrate than Mexican women.
With the Hispanic share of the population growing, the United States crossed the replacement level fertility rate in 2000 for the first time since 1971.
Mr. Sailer is a tad too nativist for our tastes, and sees these numbers as a bad thing. We see them as a very good thing and all the more reason to welcome Hispanic immigration. Our focus should be on getting those "non-Hispanic white" birthrates up over replacement rate too, rather than trying to limit the others. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 7, 2003 1:51 PM
This is likely to be a first generation affect, as it was with Jews and the Irish.
Posted by: David Cohen at January 7, 2003 1:54 PMand then they'll become just as self-centered and anti-family as the rest of us.
Posted by: oj at January 7, 2003 2:25 PMWell, to be like the Jews, the Irish and the Italians, the Hispanic immigration wave needs a cut off, as happened in 1924. That way, the population that's here is encouraged to assimilate instead of reinforcing its separatness through new waves of immigration. I do believe Hispanics have rather high rates of intermarriage, so it wouldn't be a problem.
I know one thing though, Orrin, if you lived in the Southwest, particularly LA, I don't think you'd be so chipper about bringing in yet more Spanish-speaking immigrants. There are plenty of good people in that group, but we've really had more than enough.
To the declining fertility rates, I think nature's about ready to see the globe's population decline. It won't be easy, but then again, we should be glad nature hasn't (as of yet) chosen one of her less pleasant means of depopulation, like the Black Plague.
Something else Sailer didn't touch on is India's and China's out-of-whack gender proportions. Thanks to the miracle of abortion, both countries are looking at an overwhelmingly male population. This is sure to have an impact on their demographic growth rates.
It's the Anglos in LA that I find repellant.
Posted by: oj at January 7, 2003 3:45 PMOnly someone living in NH could make that statement. There's a lot more to LA and southern California than Hollywood liberals (most of whom agree with YOU on this issue, BTW; they like their cut-rate nannies, you know). Until recently, southern California was a Republican stronghold. It is where Ronald Reagan came from, after all. Not anymore though, I guess all those potential GOPers from south of the border forgot to pick up their copy of Michael Barone's book.
Orrin, I don't know if you've had the opportunity to sample the joys of mass immigration first hand, but your choice of living location indicates you're not as truly eager about it as you claim.
I worked with a bunch of illegals and some rednecks doing geoseismic work in West Texas. I liked both. I also got the hell out of there as fast as I could.
But it's a climate deal. Temperate climes lead to moral lassitude.
Amen, Derek. Anyway Orrin, the GOP has shown almost exactly zero
tenacity or shrewdness in courting the Hispanic vote. As a fact, most Hispanics likely to vote Republican (that is, conservatives) are themselves deeply skeptical of mass unregulated immigration. Moreover, they are, as another generalization, most sympathetic to the GOP on socially conservative grounds -- abortion, etc. -- which happen to be sort of the ugly stepchild of the Republican coalition.
Downplay what they care about and emphasize what they dislike: it hardly seems an effective strategy to me.
My experienc is that Latinos assimilate
PDQ.
My experience also is that the stuff about
their family and friendship values is a
bunch of hooey.