January 7, 2003
EMINENCE GREASE:
Here We Go Again (Dotty Lynch and Douglas Kiker, Jan. 7, 2003, CBS News: Washington Wrap)It's early still, but Rove's machinations have begun in Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Washington State.In Nevada, the White House has started pushing Rep. Jim Gibbons to run against Sen. Harry Reid, who, if he has his way, might be Senate Minority Leader by that point. Rove met with Gibbons on Dec. 10, and the Post reports that a Bush-Gibbons powwow is imminent.
In South Dakota, the White House has started working on a repeat John Thune candidacy in 2004. Thune, who lost a tight race to Sen. Tim Johnson this past fall, would face Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle who is now leaning toward running again.
As we've previously reported, the White House is also putting the screws to North Carolina Rep. Richard Burr to run against incumbent senator and Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards. In neighboring South Carolina, there's also talk of a Roveian conspiracy to kill a Senate campaign in its infancy. In December, Rep. Joe Wilson had indicated he'd like to run for Ernest Hollings seat in 2004. But, after a visit by Rove to the Palmetto State on Dec. 16, he mysteriously decided not to run the very next day. (White House aides denied that Rove pressured Wilson to drop out in favor of Rep. Jim DeMint – but anyone would have to admit that the timing was interesting, to say the least.)
In North Dakota, former Republican Gov. Ed Schafer has gotten the White House treatment on running against Democrat Byron Dorgan. (Despite Schafer's repeated statements shooting down interest in a Senate race, Bush called him "Senator" at a White House Christmas Party.)
And in Washington State, Rep. Jennifer Dunn, a White House favorite, has been steered toward a run against Sen. Patty Murray, who headed the Democrats' 2002 Senate campaign committee. Despite Dunn's reluctance, in the words of the state GOP chairman, "the White House is all over her."
Pretty good advance work for a Mayberry Machiavelli.
You'd have to think WA, NC, SC & WA offer golden opportunities and in the Dakotas the two incumbents will have to run some twenty or more points better than their party's presidential nominee. The most interesting fight may be in NY though, where Pataki, Guiliani, and Peter King are all possible GOP candidates. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 7, 2003 1:40 PM
Nice to see Rove on the job.
Re Dakotas - should be GOP pickups but Johnson's win in '02 vs. Thune and the ND Dem Rep (Pomeroy?) winning in '02 show these states elect Dem Senators and Reps despite big GOP presidential wins - can't count on them yet.
Other possible GOP pickups - CA (Boxer weak, need strong challenger), FL (Graham's president bid might hurt his senate bid), HI (Inouye is old), AR (Lincoln vs. Huckabee?) WI (Feingold alienates people, need strong challenger). Miller (GA) is near 70 but given his conservative voting record ok if he stays Dem.
Hard to see any GOP seats in trouble other than IL (Fitzgerald), AK (replacement senator), PA (Spector if GOP allows primary fight).
Just getting some decent opponents against these incumbents would be an improvement. It's about time someone stepped in and slapped down some petty egos.
Here in Washington (not the fantasy land on the Potomac), Nethercutt seems to want to take on Patty the Muron, too. It would be nice, for once, to not see the Republicans beating each other up in the primary (mid-Sept.), with the result that clowns like Patty to coast to reelection.
If there are any primary fights, I would suspect that it's either to teach someone a lesson (Spector gets the Sununu treatment) or because of too many egos (New York).
The 2008 election is likely to be binary. If the war is going well and the econony is in good shape, Bush wins with 52-53 percent and an electoral college landslide and the Reps increase their margins in both Houses, and in the Senate by quite a bit. Bad war or bad economy, bye bye Bush, bye bye majorities.
Posted by: David Cohen at January 8, 2003 3:06 PMMiller (GA) announces he's not running for reelection. Former Gov Barnes would be a tough candidate but Miller's retirement raises the chances that the GOP, with a decent candidate and good showing by Bush in '04, can take this seat.
Posted by: AWW at January 8, 2003 3:49 PM