"The goal of this forum," read a statement from the July meeting in Prague of the Forum of Free Peoples of Russia -- a gathering of anti-Putin, anti-war groups that has met four times since the war began -- "is the complete and irreversible decolonization of Russia. Our goals will have been achieved only when the Russian Federation ceases to exist as a subject of international law and is transformed into 25-35 independent, free, and - we hope - democratic countries."

Opinions vary wildly on how likely such a scenario might be. Many analysts agree that the war is shaking the centralized power structure Putin has created over nearly a quarter-century as president or prime minister. Western estimates indicate at least 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, with tens of thousands more wounded, captured, or missing. Hundreds of thousands of people - many of them in their prime earning years - have fled the country. The international community has imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia, with tough measures targeting Moscow's vital oil and gas revenues just beginning to be felt.

"I see a certain disorder in the governing system," said political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin. "The power vertical they have been building...is beginning to shake at a critical moment.

"If Putin loses the war - and that is a very realistic possibility - then I don't see any legal means to change the government. As a result, the siloviki will settle things among themselves," he said, referring to the leaders of the military and security agencies.

Some analysts point to the weakness of regional elites inside Russia, saying Putin's system has made regional leaders far more dependent on Moscow than on their local constituents. In many cases, genuine leaders of Russia's ethnic minorities have either fled the country or faced persecution as "extremists" under Putin's intense crackdown on dissent over the last few years.

"Unlike in the late 1980s and early 1990s, we don't see any actors who are capable of building on centrifugal tendencies," said analyst Nikolai Petrov, contrasting the present situation to the collapse of the Soviet Union, when local leaders became focuses of the independence drives in most of its 15 republics.

Nonetheless, he added, "the collapse of the Soviet empire is not completed and might continue further." Within 15 years, we might see a "quasi-federative or confederative" state, he said. "Or even separate regions leading a divided existence."

Elise Giuliano, a specialist on ethnic-identity issues in Russia at Columbia University's Harriman Institute and author of the book Constructing Grievance: Ethnic Nationalism In Russia's Republics, said anti-government attitudes vary considerably from region to region within Russia, and conditions under Putin make it impossible to gauge public opinion on sensitive matters such as this.