OF COURSE, IT SHIFTED IN 1865:

A year later, the script reads differently. China's economy has turned sluggish, pulled down by expanding state intervention in the economy, waves of COVID-related lockdowns, a property sector slowdown and softening international demand for Chinese exports. Beijing's messy exit from its zero-COVID policy has exacerbated domestic stressors. Even as China remains the largest trading partner for most of the world, its economic lustre has dimmed amid declining economic growth.

China's international image in most of the developed world has also suffered. Part of this owes to China's rhetorical support for Russia amid Moscow's barbarism in Ukraine. China's plummeting image is also attributable to its hardening authoritarianism at home, its nationalistic 'wolf warrior' diplomacy and its growing military activity along its periphery, including in the waters and airspace around Taiwan.

By comparison, Biden's political position has strengthened. At home, the Biden administration secured passage of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which together add up to over US$1 trillion in government spending. Though elements of these investments favouring domestic manufacturing have generated friction with US trading partners, they represent a generational investment in US innovation. Technology companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel and IBM announced investments in semiconductor production in the United States exceeding US$100 billion.

The United States also strengthened its position abroad. Transatlantic unity deepened under the stress of the joint response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Coordination strengthened in other purpose-driven groupings, such as the Quad and AUKUS. The G7 bolstered its relevance as its members acted with greater cohesion on global challenges, including financing Indonesia and Vietnam's clean energy transitions. US-ASEAN ties were elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The United States' relationships with Pacific Island countries also advanced, including through the release of the White House's Pacific Partnership Strategy.

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