THERE IS NO AFGHANISTAN:

At their core, the Taliban is Pashtun-dominated, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, despite their large membership of fighters from other ethnicities.

Indications that unity and the distribution of power are points of friction became apparent within months of the regime seizing power. The arrest of popular Uzbek Taliban commander, Makhdoom Alam, in Balkh province in January 2022, reportedly on the orders of the Taliban's Pashtun former deputy defense minister Mullah Mohammad Fazl, suggests the Taliban favor one ethnic group.

Hundreds of Uzbek protesters surrounded the Taliban's security headquarters in Maymana to demand his release. Violence erupted and four people were killed. The Taliban sent reinforcements, including a unit of suicide bombers.

The confrontation ended after negotiations, but the reasons for Alam's arrest remain unclear. The Taliban are accused of evicting ethnic Uzbeks and Turkmen in northern Afghanistan from their homes and giving the properties to Pashtun nomads.

As Taliban leader Amir Hibatullah Akhundzada installs loyalists, fissures are likely to widen between the Haqqani network, a semi-autonomous offshoot of the Taliban, and southern Taliban groups such as the Kandahar cleric court.

That could result in fragmentation if the Taliban's Interior Minister and head of the Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, uses his influence to subvert Akhundzada's Kandahar base.

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