IT'S NOT JUST IDENTITY:

[A]ccording to Soros, the EU is also a very important market for the Kremlin and Putin needs the gas revenue to support his economy.

"It is estimated that Russian storage capacity will be full by July. Europe is his only market. If he doesn't supply Europe, he must shut down the wells in Siberia from where the gas comes. Some 12,000 wells are involved. It takes time to shut them down and once they are shut down, they are difficult to reopen because of the age of the equipment," Soros said in the letter.

He added that Europe needs to undertake "urgent preparations" before using its bargaining power. "Without it the pain of sudden stoppage would be politically very hard to bear," he said. "Europe should then impose hefty tax on gas imports so that the price to the consumer doesn't go down."

Leon Izbicki, an associate at Energy Aspects, agrees that Russia's gas storage is close to being full.

"Russia went into last winter with record high stocks of around 72.6 billion cubic meters and aims for an even higher underground storage target for winter 2022 of 72.7 billion cubic meters," Izbicki added via email. "While we do not have visibility on Russian underground storage, it seems plausible that Russia could reach this target this summer already."

He added that that Russia lacks flexibility in its gas storage and does not have the means to divert gas from Europe to, for example, Asia due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure.

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