March 14, 2022
XI HARDEST HIT:
Five lessons Taiwan is learning from the war in Ukraine (Lili Pike, Mar. 8th, 2022, Grid)
Taiwan has also figured more prominently in U.S. foreign policy than Ukraine. China, not Russia, is the U.S.'s principal rival, and Taiwan sits in waters that are critical for global trade, military and even internet activity. (Important undersea cables run around Taiwan). "It occupies the most critical strategic terrain arguably on the planet today," said Ian Easton, senior director of the Project 2049 Institute, an American think tank that advocates for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.Taiwan is also an economic powerhouse. It is the U.S.'s ninth-largest trading partner, while Ukraine takes the 67th slot. Its GDP ranked 21st in the world last year; Ukraine's was 57th. And Taiwan is the world's leading manufacturer of semiconductors -- the chips that are central to modern technology worldwide.Another significant difference involves geography. Taiwan is an island. From a tactical perspective, that makes it a far more difficult target than Ukraine; it would be much harder for China to launch an invasion across 100 miles of water than it has been for Russian troops to cross the land border with Ukraine."It is well known that any potential Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan would be extremely high-risk in military terms," Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the Rand Corporation, told Grid.Grid spoke with military and strategic analysts and Taiwan experts about the conflict's lessons for Taiwanese policymakers and ordinary citizens. These experts don't always agree -- and all note that the lessons may change as the war plays out. But they offer initial answers to the question: What are the main takeaways from the war in Ukraine, as seen from Taiwan?For many in Taiwan, Putin's invasion has made clear the need for greater preparedness. If a war that had seemed unlikely could come to Ukraine, then the same may prove true for Taiwan, and the Taiwanese have seen the effectiveness of fierce resistance put up by Ukrainian soldiers and civilians."I think one of the consequences of the Ukraine invasion is telling people in Taiwan that the people matter and the will to resist matters," said Lai, "and Taiwan actually enjoys better odds to defend itself in the face of invasion. If Ukraine can do it, then Taiwanese people can do it as well."
Posted by Orrin Judd at March 14, 2022 12:00 AM
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