VLADISTAN HAS NO FUTURE:

Russia's continuous economic growth during President Vladimir Putin's first two terms in office, powered by rising energy prices, set the stage for a swell of migration from countries like Tajikistan, where remittances typically equate to between a quarter and two-fifths of GDP.

But successive economic setbacks, most notably the double whammy of Western sanctions over the Kremlin's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and the oil price crash, have led to tighter margins for guest workers feeding families back home.   

Since Russian forces poured into Ukraine the ruble has fallen by around a fifth, with Western forecasters predicting an economic contraction of between five and 10 percent this year and a continuing recession in 2023. 

The World Bank in March forecasted that the real value of remittances sent to Tajikistan would fall by 22 percent this year, scrapping its pre-invasion forecast of a two percent rise.

For Safarov, the bleak economic outlook in Russia was compounded by police raids on his and other migrants' places of residence, which he said grew in frequency in the build-up to the invasion.  

"We need to stop going to Russia in search of work. We need to find a path to work in Europe," Safarov told AFP.

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