March 2, 2022
OTHER THAN THAT, HOW IS NATIONALISM WORKING OUT FOR YOU?:
Russian Economist Says Sanctions Have Hit Hard (Interview Conducted By Claus Hecking, 02.03.2022, Der Spiegel)
DER SPIEGEL: Professor Sonin, last week Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and numerous states introduced sanctions against the country. How is the mood in Russia's economy and business community?Sonin: Partly grim, partly resigned. Most businessmen and experts did not expect this. They had prepared for action against Ukraine, but not for a full-scale war. Now they are shocked. For years after the end of the Soviet Union, many of these people tried to set up modern, forward-looking companies and institutions. Now they fear it will end badly, that all their work will be flushed down the toilet. And I'm afraid they might be right. There is no good scenario.DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean by that?Sonin: Suppose things now go the way (Russian President Vladimir) Putin wants: Russian troops kill (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy and take Kyiv. Then there will be years of fighting and terrorist attacks, because hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians now have guns ...DER SPIEGEL: ... and if Kyiv isn't conquered?Sonin: Then that means: Russia is losing the war, thousands of soldiers on both sides will die. In both cases, it will take a long time to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Western countries and restore trust - if that succeeds at all. At best, I expect the economy to stagnate for years. A recession is more likely, along with massive inflation. This year it could quickly be 30 or 40 percent.
Posted by Orrin Judd at March 2, 2022 12:00 AM