IT'S ALWAYS FUKUYAMA TIME:

A lack of democratic accountability is more often a source of weakness than an indication of strength, however. Subordinates in dictatorships survive by telling their superiors what they want to hear instead of the truth. This is true of all such systems, whether communist or, as in the case of Russia, nationalistic and chauvinistic. Accurate information is discouraged by a system that rewards obedience and loyalty. Yes-men thrive, while whistle-blowers are ruthlessly purged.

Russia has not yet lost the war in Ukraine; however, there can be little doubt that the conflict is unfolding contrary to how the Kremlin had hoped it would. As Lawrence Freedman writes for the New Statesman, "Russia has now committed well over 90 per cent of the tremendous force that was gathered around Ukraine before 24 February, and is still unable to take its early objectives." According to the Ukrainian government, Russia lost 11,000 troops in a little over a week of fighting.

It seems increasingly clear that one of the reasons Putin's war in Ukraine is going badly is because Kremlin courtiers are feeding bad information to their increasingly isolated president. In the lead-up to the invasion, Putin was clearly badly informed about the strength of Ukrainian resolve and its sense of national identity.

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