A DRESS REHEARSAL:

Russia is losing Chinese political and economic support and is more isolated. Then, either it reaches a negotiated agreement soon, allowing an orderly withdrawal, or in a little while, perhaps galvanized by successes and new weapons, the Ukrainians go on the counter-attack and the Russians may run with their tails between their legs.

Beijing is lucky today that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has moved the political limelight away from China. Still, it is a small consolation because the war raises broader issues. China is now bogged down in a tough position.

It can't cut Russia loose, because that would hasten President Vladimir Putin's rout in Ukraine, possibly starting his political demise and maybe even the disintegration of Russia. It can't hold Russia's burden too long, because it could drown China with its downfall.

Tweet   @brothersjudd