February 6, 2022

THE HARD PART IS GETTING RUSSIA TO INVADE:

If Russia Takes Ukraine, Insurgency Could Be Putin's Nightmare (James Stavridis, February 5, 2022, Bloomberg)

In my visits to Ukraine as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's military commander, I found its troops and government officials to be fiercely proud of their language, heritage and national sovereignty. Ukrainian troops deployed to Afghanistan under my command, and also participated in several other NATO missions. What they may have lacked in training and equipment they made up through determination and toughness.

The Ukrainian collective memory stretches back through many involvements with Russian troops in the interwar years of the 20th century, during the famines and fighting of World War II, and during the Cold War years of the Soviet Union. As Timothy Snyder points out in his book "Bloodlands," the Ukrainians suffered greatly and at the hands of Russians over the past century. They can and will fight. And the Western democracies can help.

The U.S. has been on both sides of insurgencies, of course. It fought a long war in Vietnam that it ultimately lost to the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong. More recently, the Taliban simply outlasted U.S. patience in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, Washington supported a successful insurgency, ironically, against the Soviets during their occupation of Afghanistan -- American Stinger missiles may have been the key technology that helped turn the tide. Allied support to the French resistance in World War II was a crucial element in undermining German control over the population in the months leading up to D-Day.

This kind of support can be done clandestinely, led by the Central Intelligence Agency. But in the situation of a democracy overrun by an authoritarian neighbor, there seems little value in hiding the ball. If the U.S. makes the decision that it will support a potential Ukrainian resistance movement, it should be laying the groundwork immediately, while Russian tanks are still parked on the other side of the border.

This means getting supplies into the hands of Ukrainian special forces, who would be a central part of such a resistance force. They would need the ability to move out of the population centers, organize and live off the land, communicate collectively, and above all inflict damage on the occupiers.

This implies a need for transportable explosives, light but lethal handheld missiles to use against Russian tanks and close-air support, and plenty of conventional ammunition and hardware including sniper rifles, high-end optical sights and night vision devices. Cyberwarfare support would be a must. And trainers in-country -- both military and CIA.

One key would be for the Zelenskiy government to get out of Kyiv before the Russians consolidated control. The government-in-exile should be welcomed in a NATO capital, and provided full support from the alliance administratively and diplomatically. It should continue to function via its system of ambassadors worldwide, and communicate effectively with the resistance leadership within the country. The model of Charles de Gaulle's Free French government -- despite occasionally being a challenge to the World War II allies -- would be suitable.

Sure, the guerilla war would work, but they should go on the offensive instead, taking out Russia's oil infrastructure. 


Posted by at February 6, 2022 12:00 AM

  

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