nATIONALISM DOESN'T WORK:

The TPP, however, was aimed at more than just lowering trade barriers. It was also an attempt by the United States--along with like‐​minded allies--to help shape the rules governing trade in the Asia‐​Pacific region. As Asia's center both geographically and economically, China is already assured of having a significant say in such matters. The TPP was meant to ensure the United States had a prominent seat at the table when such rules were being hammered out--before it opted to push away.

In other words, U.S. losses from its TPP withdrawal have not just been economic but geopolitical. And if the TPP was deemed a useful tool in countering China's influence during the years it was being negotiated, it would be even more of an asset now given the bilateral relationship's increasingly acrimonious nature.

Other countries have been less short‐​sighted in their trade policies. Following U.S. withdrawal, the remaining TPP members went back to the negotiating table and struck a new deal: the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans‐​Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). As a result, these countries often have easier access to each other's markets than what Americans enjoy. That's a boon to consumers and businesses in CPTPP members who enjoy cheaper imports and expanded export opportunities.

Indeed, the CPTPP has proved so alluring that China and Taiwan have both applied to join while South Korea has taken initial steps toward becoming a member. Even the United Kingdom wants in.

Other notable trade liberalization initiatives have taken place in recent years as well. In late 2020, 15 countries of the Asia‐​Pacific region concluded the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Entering into force on January 1 of this year, the RCEP--which notably includes China--contains tariff reductions and regulatory harmonization measures meant to spur trade between member countries. And in 2018, Japan and the European Union signed a trade deal that took effect the following year.

Amidst such trade integration, the United States has largely been left on the outside looking in. This means that not only has the country foregone the TPP's projected benefits but the competitiveness of U.S. firms has been eroded owing to the lack of preferential market access enjoyed by their foreign counterparts.

As a result, a 2017 PIIE analysis calculated that the TPP/CPTPP's net impact on the United States had swung from a $131 billion gain to a $2 billion loss. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, meanwhile, found that RCEP will shrink U.S. exports by over $5 billion as trade is diverted away from U.S. firms and toward foreign competitors subject to lower tariff rates under the agreement.

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